Next Day's Advance Market Decisions: September 2005

Friday, September 30, 2005

Third Quarter Window Dressing Is Now Complete

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Thursday September 29, 2005: DJIA closed 10,552.78 up +79.69

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday September 30 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 16%

Market Comment: The DJIA forecast has posted 16% probability to be "Up" Friday. A 16% reading is very low and profit taking could set in after the big run up Thursday. The DJIA Trend and Momentum moved up one notch yesterday, a positive event. The third quarter window dressing is now complete. The Stock Market is trading a 5-week futures and options cycle and has three weeks left for October, which means a lot more volatility ahead.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 16%
Trend: Rising Today 35% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Rising Today 39% vs. Yesterday 35% (High 58% / Low 29%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Rising 35% vs. Yesterday 34% (High 60% / Low 34%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 67.7% vs. Yesterday 58.0 (High 88.8% / Low 46.0%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 13% vs. Yesterday 03% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 11% vs. Yesterday 02% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today 05% vs. Yesterday -16% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 17% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 04% vs. Yesterday -01% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today 06% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 37% vs. Yesterday 33% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Thursday, September 29, 2005

Stock Market Lacks Conviction

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Wednesday September 28, 2005: DJIA closed 10,473.09 up +16.88

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday September 29 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 35%

Market Comment: The DJIA forecast has posted 35% probability to be "Up" Thursday. The DJIA Trend and Momentum has stabilized. The end of the 3rd quarter is near and Institutional Investors will square their positions for reporting this period. The Stock Market is trading a 5-week futures and options cycle for October. It is important to recognize this as more volatility happens with the extra time involved. The Stock Market turned in a weak performance on Wednesday as the ETF's actually lost ground on an up day. There has been heavy distribution for the past few months. The NASDAQ Composite is still weak and under distribution, also. Truly, the Stock Market lacks conviction and needs an event to move above or below its narrow trading levels.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 35%
Trend: Neutral Today 32% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Neutral Today 35% vs. Yesterday 35% (High 58% / Low 29%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling 34% vs. Yesterday 35% (High 60% / Low 34%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 58.0% vs. Yesterday 56.5 (High 88.8% / Low 46.0%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today 03% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today 02% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today -16% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Falling Today 08% vs. Yesterday 18% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -01% vs. Yesterday 05% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -08% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Neutral Today 33% vs. Yesterday 33% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Stock Market Acting As If It Wants To Go Up

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Tuesday September 27, 2005: DJIA closed 10,456.21 up +12.58

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday September 28 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 55%

Market Comment: The DJIA forecast has posted 55% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. The DJIA Trend has stabilized and the Momentum has improved. The end of the quarter is near and Institutional Investors will square their positions for reporting this period. The Stock Market is trading a 5-week futures and options cycle for October. It is important to recognize this as more volatility happens with the extra time involved. The Stock Market is acting as if it wants to go up.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 55%
Trend: Neutral Today 32% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Rising Today 35% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 58% / Low 29%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling 35% vs. Yesterday 36% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 56.5% vs. Yesterday 57.6 (High 88.8% / Low 46.0%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 08% vs. Yesterday 03% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 10% vs. Yesterday 02% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today -08% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 18% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today 05% vs. Yesterday 07% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -10% vs. Yesterday -12% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 33% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Tuesday, September 27, 2005

Stock Market To Retrace Monday's Move Up

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Monday September 26, 2005: DJIA closed 10,443.63 up +24.04

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday September 27 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 45%

Market Comment: The DJIA forecast has posted 45% probability to be "Up" Tuesday. The DJIA Trend has stabilized by moving up a notch. By doing so, this change in direction quite often indicates a shift in smart money sentiment. It is also noteworthy that the recent increasing declining volume did not move the DJIA further to the downside on Monday after showing some promise in the morning. Therefore, even with only 45% probability of being "Up" Tuesday, one must wait for further confirmation that a positive change is in the making.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 45%
Trend: Rising Today 32% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Neutral Today 32% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 58% / Low 29%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling 36% vs. Yesterday 38% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 57.6% vs. Yesterday 55.0 (High 88.8% / Low 46.0%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today 03% vs. Yesterday 04% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today 02% vs. Yesterday 05% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Neutral Today -17% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Neutral Today 10% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Neutral Today 07% vs. Yesterday 07% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Falling Today -12% vs. Yesterday -09% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 24% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Saturday, September 24, 2005

DJIA Remains Weak

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Friday September 23, 2005: DJIA closed 10,419.59 down -2.46

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Monday September 26 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 42%

Market Comment: The DJIA forecast has posted 42% probability to be "Up" Monday. The DJIA Trend continued its move down Friday to 29%. DJIA remains vulnerable to move lower. Last week the index had 5 of 10 days with 2000+ declines, not a healthy sign. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's decline each day was on increasing daily volume. Increasing declining volume typically precedes more selling. The DJIA was down on Friday after one day of rest. While the Stock Market turned up Thursday, the DJIA indicators remain Bearish. The decline should resume on Monday after showing some promise in the morning. The next DJIA level of support is 10,250.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 42%
Trend: Falling Today 29% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Neutral Today 32% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 58% / Low 29%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling 38% vs. Yesterday 42% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 55.0% vs. Yesterday 51.8 (High 88.8% / Low 46.0%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 04% vs. Yesterday -07% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 05% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today -17% vs. Yesterday -27% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 10% vs. Yesterday 00% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 07% vs. Yesterday -01% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -09% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 29% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Friday, September 23, 2005

Renewed Selling Due On Friday

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Thursday September 22, 2005: DJIA closed 10,422.05 up +44.02

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday September 23 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 45%

Market Comment: The DJIA forecast has posted 45% probability to be "Up" Friday. The DJIA Trend turned down again Thursday to 32%, a significant drop. Although the Momentum turned up, along with the major ETF results, the DJIA remains vulnerable to more decline. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's decline each day was on increasing daily volume. Increasing declining volume typically precedes more selling. While the Stock Market turned up Thursday, the DJIA indicators remain Bearish. The decline should resume on Friday as the next DJIA level of support is 10,250.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 45%
Trend: Falling Today 32% vs. Yesterday 39% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Rising Today 32% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 58% / Low 29%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling 42% vs. Yesterday 47% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 51.8% vs. Yesterday 45.8 (High 88.8% / Low 45.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today -07% vs. Yesterday -12% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today -06% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today -27% vs. Yesterday -32% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 00% vs. Yesterday -03% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -01% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -17% vs. Yesterday -36% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 19% vs. Yesterday 26% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Thursday, September 22, 2005

Stock Market Should Pause To Be Positive Today

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Wednesday September 21, 2005: DJIA closed 10,378.03 down -103.49

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday September 22 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 87%

Market Comment: The DJIA forecast has posted 87% probability to be "Up" Thursday. The DJIA Trend turned down Tuesday to 39%, a significant drop. The Momentum made a new low of 29%. Even though the DJIA and Stock Market are making lower lows, a day up would give pause to the last three day decline. However, because the decline has been on increasing daily volume, the decline is probably not over. Increasing declining volume typically precedes more selling. While the Stock Market has a high probability of advancing today, all indicators remain Bearish. The advance on Thursday will need to be strong to turn the Trend back up. Otherwise, the decline will resume on Friday as the next DJIA level of support is 10,250.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 87%
Trend: Falling Today 39% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 29% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 58% / Low 29%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling 47% vs. Yesterday 50% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bearish Falling 45.8% vs. Yesterday 57.2 (High 88.8% / Low 45.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today -12% vs. Yesterday -04% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today -10% vs. Yesterday 00% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today -32% vs. Yesterday -15% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Falling Today -03% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -08% vs. Yesterday -01% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Falling Today -36% vs. Yesterday -30% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 26% vs. Yesterday 39% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Wednesday, September 21, 2005

Stock Market Should See Positive Today

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Tuesday September 20, 2005: DJIA closed 10,481.52 down -76.11

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday September 21 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 94%

Market Comment: As you can see on http://www.mktmetrics.com/, the DJIA forecast has posted 94% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. The DJIA Trend turned down Tuesday to 58%. The Momentum made a new low of 32%. Even though the DJIA and Stock Market in general are making lower lows, a day up would give pause in the recent decline. The NASDAQ Composite has come down to a raising support line. The Stock Market has a very high probability of advancing today. However, the advance on Wednesday will need to be strong to turn the Trend back up. Otherwise, the decline will resume on Thursday.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 94%
Trend: Falling Today 58% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 32% vs. Yesterday 39% (High 58% / Low 32%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling 50% vs. Yesterday 51% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 57.2% vs. Yesterday 69.0 (High 88.8% / Low 57.2%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today -04% vs. Yesterday 05% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today 00% vs. Yesterday 11% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today -15% vs. Yesterday 06% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Falling Today 14% vs. Yesterday 28% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -01% vs. Yesterday 03% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Falling Today -30% vs. Yesterday -24% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 39% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Tuesday, September 20, 2005

Stock Market Will Be Positive Tuesday

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Monday September 19, 2005: DJIA closed 10,557.63 down -84.31

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday September 20 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 90%

Market Comment: As you can see on www.MktMetrics.com, the DJIA forecast has posted 90% probability to be "Up" Tuesday. The DJIA Trend turned up again Monday to 65%. The FOMC meeting makes their decision on interest rates today. Based upon the fact that the Trend has moved up a second day and there is a 90% chance of the DJIA to be up, the Stock Market has a very high probability of advancing today.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 90%
Trend: Rising Today 65% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 39% vs. Yesterday 39% (High 58% / Low 39%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Neutral 51% vs. Yesterday 51% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 69.0% vs. Yesterday 73.3 (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today 05% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today 11% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today 06% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Falling Today 28% vs. Yesterday 30% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 03% vs. Yesterday 01% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Falling Today -24% vs. Yesterday -19% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 52% vs. Yesterday 59% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Saturday, September 17, 2005

DJIA Posts Weak Week Statistics

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Friday September 16, 2005: DJIA closed 10,641.94 up +83.19

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Monday September 19 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 23%

Market Comment: On Friday 9-9-05, the DJIA closed at 10,678.56. The high and low was 10,695.92 and 10,593.94, respectively. On Friday 9-16-05, the DJIA closed at 10,641.94. The high and low was 10,647.20 and 10,560.50, respectively. Out of the past seven days, 3 of 7 have seen 2000+ declines. Both readings are weak postings for the week. The Specialists and Market Makers continue with their distribution of inventory, information provided as you can see on www.MktMetrics.com.

The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 23% probability to be "Up" Monday. The DJIA Trend turned up Friday to 58% and the 21-day moving average, also. However, it is interesting to note that the Trend and Momentum are the same as was published by MktMetrics last Wednesday. This also illustrates that the DJIA has not made progress. Volume was abnormally high on Friday, another sign of distribution by Specialists and Market Makers. As most expirations go, Friday was an important day for them.

Monday should see selling pressure as it is the day after a very high volume futures and options expiration. Greenspan speaks on Tuesday at FOMC meeting regarding interest rates.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 23%
Trend: Rising Today 58% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 39% vs. Yesterday 42% (High 58% / Low 39%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Falling 51% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 73.3% vs. Yesterday 68.1% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 09% vs. Yesterday 07% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 13% vs. Yesterday 05% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today 08% vs. Yesterday 06% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 30% vs. Yesterday 18% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 01% vs. Yesterday 00% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -19% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 59% vs. Yesterday 53% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Friday, September 16, 2005

Stock Market Is Prone To A Decline Friday

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Thursday September 15, 2005: DJIA closed 10,558.75 up +13.85

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday September 16 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 48%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 48% probability to be "Up" Friday. The DJIA Trend declined on Thursday's up day. It is not a positive event for the DJIA Trend to decline on an up day. Yesterday's small DJIA increase after the big run-up on the major Japanese markets is a concern. The Dow 30 stocks remain under distribution. The Stock Market Trend is falling and remains fragile. Friday could see some selling pressure as it is the last day of the futures and options expiration cycle as we head into the weekend. Greenspan speaks on Tuesday at FOMC meeting regarding interest rates. Futures are up this morning, hopefully they will hold throughout the day.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 48%
Trend: Falling Today 55% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Rising Today 42% vs. Yesterday 39% (High 58% / Low 39%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Falling 52% vs. Yesterday 53% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 68.1% vs. Yesterday 69.7% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 07% vs. Yesterday -05% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 05% vs. Yesterday -04% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today 06% vs. Yesterday -02% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 18% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 00% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -20% vs. Yesterday -37% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 53% vs. Yesterday 36% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Thursday, September 15, 2005

Stock Market Set To Rally Thursday

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Wednesday September 14, 2005: DJIA closed 10,544.90 down -52.50

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday September 15 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 74%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 74% probability to be "Up" Thursday. The DJIA Trend declined on Wednesday's down day. The Momentum and ETF's declined, also. Should the DJIA make a dramatic rebound today, there could be a rise of 300 points to 10,845 over the next three to five trading days. Should this happen, the DJIA would complete a head and shoulders bearish pattern, creating disaster for the Stock Market.
MktMetrics emphasis is tracking what the Specialists and Market Makers or Exchange Insiders are doing with their inventory. It is apparent that this elite group are moving stocks higher as they continue their distribution process at the upper trading range.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 74%
Trend: Falling Today 58% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 39% vs. Yesterday 42% (High 58% / Low 39%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Falling 53% vs. Yesterday 54% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 69.7% vs. Yesterday 75.6% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today -05% vs. Yesterday 06% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today -04% vs. Yesterday 06% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today -02% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Falling Today 14% vs. Yesterday 27% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -06% vs. Yesterday 04% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Falling Today -37% vs. Yesterday -28% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 36% vs. Yesterday 38% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Wednesday, September 14, 2005

Stock Market Wednesday Should Rebound

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Tuesday September 13, 2005: DJIA closed 10,597.44 down -85.50

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday September 14 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 84%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 84% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. The DJIA Trend did not decline on Tuesday's down day. So it is probable that yesterday was simply profit taking and more volatility expected as futures and options expire this week. The Momentum and ETF's declined, which was expected as the markets gave back some of their previous gains. Retail and Brokerages could lead the way today.
The DJIA has been in a trading range of 10,150 to 10,750 all Summer. Monday, the DJIA theorectical high was 19,743.70, so we hit the Summer highs once again. Should the DJIA sprint to a nominal new high above 11,027, it would spell disaster for the Stock Market. Conversely, should the DJIA re-test the bottom of the range to at least the 10,250 level, it would be healthy and provide impetus for a sustained rally for the balance of the year and into the first quarter of 2006. MktMetrics emphasis is tracking what the Specialists and Market Makers or Exchange Insiders are doing with their inventory. It is apparent that this elite group are moving stocks higher as they continue their distribution process at the upper trading range.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 84%
Trend: Rising Today 65% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 42% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 58% / Low 42%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 54% vs. Yesterday 53% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 75.6% vs. Yesterday 80.8% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today 06% vs. Yesterday 07% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today 06% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today 09% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 27% vs. Yesterday 25% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today 04% vs. Yesterday 07% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -28% vs. Yesterday -21% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 38% vs. Yesterday 50% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Tuesday, September 13, 2005

Profit Taking For Tuesday's Stock Market

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Monday September 12, 2005: DJIA closed 10,682.94 up +4.38

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday September 13 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 58%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 58% probability to be "Up" Tuesday. The DJIA Trend rose Monday, but the Momentum and ETF's declined on an up day. So Tuesday could see some profit taking from the past two day's run-up. This week, futures and options will expire, typically causing much volatility. The DJIA has been in a trading range of 10,150 to 10,750 all Summer. Monday, the DJIA theorectical high was 19,743.70 so we hit the Summer highs once again. Should the DJIA sprint to a nominal new high above 11,027, it would spell disaster for the Stock Market. Conversely, should the DJIA re-test the bottom of the range to at least the 10,250 level, it would be healthy and provide impetus for a sustained rally for the balance of the year and into the first quarter of 2006.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 58%
Trend: Rising Today 65% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 52% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 58% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 53% vs. Yesterday 50% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 80.8% vs. Yesterday 79.9% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today 07% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today 08% vs. Yesterday 16% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today 12% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Falling Today 25% vs. Yesterday 30% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today 07% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -21% vs. Yesterday -23% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 50% vs. Yesterday 51% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

Saturday, September 10, 2005

Time Will Tell For The Stock Market

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Friday September 9, 2005: DJIA closed 10,678.56 up +82.63

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Monday September 12 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 19%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 19% probability to be "Up" Monday. Often, Mondays will pull-back after strong "Up" Fridays. The DJIA Trend rose Friday and so did the Momentum. This week, futures and options will expire, typically causing much volatility. The DJIA has been in a trading range of 10,150 to 10,750 all Summer. We are near the high of that range once again. Should the DJIA sprint to a nominal new high above 11,027, it would spell disaster for the Stock Market. Conversely, should the DJIA re-test the bottom of the range to at least the 10,250 level, it would be healthy and provide impetus for a sustained rally for the balance of the year and into the first quarter of 2006.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 19%
Trend: Rising Today 61% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Rising Today 58% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 58% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Neutral Rising 50% vs. Yesterday 45% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 79.9% vs. Yesterday 74.7% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF's Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 12% vs. Yesterday 04% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 16% vs. Yesterday 06% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today 20% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 30% vs. Yesterday 27% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 12% vs. Yesterday 01% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IYT: Rising Today -23% vs. Yesterday -24% (High 61% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 51% vs. Yesterday 42% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

Friday, September 09, 2005

Stock Market Will Rise Friday

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Thursday September 8, 2005: DJIA closed 10,595.93 down -37.57

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday September 9 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 77%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 77% probability to be "Up" Friday. The DJIA Trend rose yesterday on a down day, which will extend the most recent advance on Friday. The Stock Market remains fragile and has recently witnessed massive distribution. The momentum has yet to change. Next week futures and options will expire during a seasonally bad month for stocks.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 77%
Trend: Rising Today 58% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Neutral Today 52% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 55% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Rising 45% vs. Yesterday 40% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 74.7% vs. Yesterday 77.7% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today 04% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today 06% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Falling Today 13% vs. Yesterday 26% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Falling Today 27% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today 01% vs. Yesterday 03% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IDU: Falling Today 42% vs. Yesterday 53% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Stock Market Has Gone Too Far Too Fast

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Wednesday September 7, 2005: DJIA closed 10,633.50 up +44.26

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday September 8 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 29%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast yesterday had posted 6% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. Today, the DJIA reading is only 29%. So the Stock Market can expect some profit taking today as these readings illustrate that the Stock Market has gone too far, too fast. The Stock Market remains fragile and has recently witnessed massive distribution. The momentum has yet to change. The DJIA remains Bearish and could move lower from current levels to re-test 10,400 support.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 29%
Trend: Rising Today 55% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Neutral Today 52% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 55% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Rising 40% vs. Yesterday 36% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 77.7% vs. Yesterday 74.5% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 10% vs. Yesterday 04% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 14% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today 26% vs. Yesterday 17% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 29% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 03% vs. Yesterday -03% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IDU: Rising Today 53% vs. Yesterday 26% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Stock Market Could See Profit Taking Wednesday

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Tuesday September 6, 2005: DJIA closed 10,589.24 up +141.87

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday September 7 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 6%

Market Comment: The DJIA trend has turned up. Advancing stocks have recently been up over 2000 on strong volume days. So there has been good plurality recently. The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 6% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. So the Stock Market can expect some profit taking today. This is healthy, so long as it is confined to one day. The Stock Market remains fragile and has recently witnessed massive distribution. The momentum has yet to change. Therefore, the Stock Market must now prove that it has the ability for a sustained move up.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 6%
Trend: Rising Today 32% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Neutral Today 52% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 55% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Neutral 36% vs. Yesterday 36% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 74.5% vs. Yesterday 66.2% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 04% vs. Yesterday -12% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today 08% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today 17% vs. Yesterday -03% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 24% vs. Yesterday 06% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -03% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IDU: Rising Today 26%% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

Saturday, September 03, 2005

Stock Market Could Be A Real Whopper Tuesday

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Friday September 2, 2005: DJIA closed 10,447.37 down -12.26

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday September 6 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 48%

Market Comment: The DJIA trend and momentum statistics are holding steady. The widely followed ETFs rose on Friday's down day. The DJIA index closed above the 10,400 support level. Advancing stocks have recently been up over 2000 on strong volume days. So there was good plurality last week and the DJIA had a positive week. The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 48% probability to be "Up" Tuesday. While there continues to be backing and filling as the Stock Market attempts to strengthen at its current level, it is imperative to move up over the next few days. Should the Stock Market give way to additional selling pressure, the next level of support for the DJIA is 10,250. However, with the major Stock Market investors back from vacation and plenty of money to invest, expect some fireworks. There is conceivably a 190 point high/low range in the DJIA for Tuesday.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 48%
Trend: Rising Today 19% vs. Yesterday 16% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Falling Today 52% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 55% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Neutral 36% vs. Yesterday 36% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 66.2% vs. Yesterday 68.8% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today -12% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today -08% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today -03% vs. Yesterday -09% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 06% vs. Yesterday 0% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Neutral Today -14% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IDU: Rising Today 09%% vs. Yesterday 07% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

Friday, September 02, 2005

DJIA 58% Probability Of Being Up Friday

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Thursday September 1, 2005: DJIA closed 10,459.63 down -21.97

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday September 2 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 58%

Market Comment: The DJIA trend and momentum statistics turned back down Thursday. However, the index closed above the 10,400 support level. Advancing stocks were 2002 versus 1275 declining and up volume continues to lead down volume. So there was good plurality and the MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 58% probability to be "Up" Friday. While there continues to be backing and filling as the Stock Market attempts to strengthen at its current level, it is imperative to move up over the next few days. Should the Stock Market give way to additional selling pressure, the next level of support for the DJIA is 10,250.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 58%
Trend: Falling Today 16% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Neutral Today 55% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 55% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Neutral 36% vs. Yesterday 36% (High 60% / Low 36%)
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 68.8% vs. Yesterday 71.0% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today -20% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Falling Today -14% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Neutral Today -09% vs. Yesterday -09% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today 0% vs. Yesterday -01% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -14% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IDU: Rising Today 07%% vs. Yesterday 00% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Stock Market Should See Profit Taking Thursday

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Wednesday August 31, 2005: DJIA closed 10,481.60 up +68.78

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday September 1 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 13%

Market Comment: The DJIA trend and momentum statistics turned back up Wednesday and the index closed above the 10,400 support level. Advancing stocks were 2538 versus 772 declining, representing a surge of renewed enthusiasm for stocks going into a new month. The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 13% probability to be "Up" Thursday, so there may be some backing and filling before moving higher for the Stock Market. The recent rise in the widely followed ETF's as seen below, illustrates the smart money is beginning to accumulate stocks in preparation of a move up. Now is the time to accumulate stocks on weak days. During the next few months, it is especially favorable to own Biotech and Drug stocks.

Index Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 13%
Trend: Rising Today 19% vs. Yesterday 16% (High 77% / Low 16%)
Momentum: Rising Today 55% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 55% / Low 45%)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Neutral 36% vs. Yesterday 36% (High 60% / Low 36%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 71.0% vs. Yesterday 62.3% (High 88.8% / Low 58.8%) (DJIA, S&P500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today -14% vs. Yesterday -21% (High 47% / Low -37%)
SPY: Rising Today -11% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 56% / Low -38%)
MDY: Rising Today -09% vs. Yesterday -23% (High 65% / Low -33%)
IWM: Rising Today -01%% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 47% / Low -21%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -11% vs. Yesterday -13% (High 54% / Low -27%)
IDU: Falling Today 00%% vs. Yesterday 05% (High 61% / Low -30%)

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Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

: Name: Douglas Gale; Location: Creston, North Carolina, United States

Aquarius, 57. Raised in N. Hollywood. Spouse of 20 years a retired San Diego City school teacher. Have married sister in CA and daughter in NY. Mom was a school teacher, Dad in the Radio and TV biz. After Vietnam War, went to college. 1975 hired by Blyth Eastman Dillon (now: UBS Paine Weber.) Additionally, employed by Morgan Stanley, and west coast superregional firms: Bateman Eichler, Hill Richards (now: Wachovia)and Rauscher Pierce (now: RBC Dain Rauscher) before entering Day Trading business in 1997. Formerly lived in La Jolla Shores, CA, now living in the High Country of North Carolina overlooking 400 acre Christmas Tree and Vineyard family farm. Spent four years back-testing formulas created from 30 years experience trading NYSE member firms capital and family trust funds. Publish 3 daily blogs and offer a Free Look to our premium pre-market data service: www.MktMetrics.com. Subscribers enjoy content of Stock Market Forecast and detailed individual stock trading information required for successful securities trading.

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