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Next Day's Advance Market Decisions: February 2006

Tuesday, February 28, 2006

DJIA Trend Is Now Declining-Sell

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Monday 02-27-06: DJIA closed 11,097.55 up +35.70
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,958.67 up +13.72

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday February 28 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 42%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 42% probability to be "Up" Tuesday. The DJIA Flow of Funds has started to move lower, the MACD remains at resistance, and the DJIA Trend move lower on Friday and Monday. We are now negative on the Stock Market. We have witnessed recently many non-confirmations at these DJIA 4 1/2 year highs and view this as a false move into higher territory. There is major DJIA resistance at 11,200. The S&P resembles a double top. The NASDAQ Composite is at a declining top. The lower NYSE volume recently has illustrated that the Specialists and Market Makers have not been participating in this late stage rally. In other words, distribution has occurred and a retracement is most likely. Aggressive accounts should start shorting stocks as the DJIA Trend has reversed and is proceeding to decline. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 42% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Falling Today 71% vs. Yesterday 74% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Unchanged 68% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Today 55% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 97% / Low 10%)
Today's Volatility: .373 vs Yesterday .634 (High 2.11 / Low 0.19)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Today .048% vs Yesterday .066 (High .187 / Low -.241)
Institutional Demand Factor: Today 54.06 vs Yesterday 54.32 (High 57.55 / Low 22.19)
Institutional Inventory Factor: Today 61.90 vs Yesterday 62.52 (High 70.12 / Low 39.29)
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Today .124 vs Yesterday .145 (High .349 / -.414)

DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 71% vs. Yesterday 70% (High 86% / Low 18%)
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 86.2% vs. Yesterday 84.4% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today 20% vs. Yesterday 26% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Falling Today 08% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Falling Today 07% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Falling Today 16% vs. Yesterday 25% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Unchanged Today 09% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today -10% vs. Yesterday -04% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Unchanged Today 46% vs. Yesterday 46% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today +08% vs. Yesterday -01% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today -31% vs. Yesterday -19% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Falling Today 09% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 8:31 AM 0 comments

Monday, February 27, 2006

Site Being Upgraded And Not Available Today

Both MktMetrics and Gale Financial Market Econometrics Blog is being upgraded and will not be available today. Please check back.

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:34 AM 0 comments

Sunday, February 26, 2006

The Weekly MktMetrics Stock Market Analysis

Our belief is that the Stock Market is controlled by the Specialists and Market Makers or Exchange Insiders. We developed MktMetrics over a four year period and performed a 30-year computer generated study to test our findings. Our sole purpose was to produce a mirror image of where the Exchange Insiders buy and sell their stock inventory. We hope you will subscribe to http://www.mktmetrics.com/ and financially benefit by its consistent accuracy. After performing our extensive research, we found that the Exchange Insiders control the direction of the Stock Market by moving individual members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to establish a trend for the purpose of accumulating and distributing stock at wholesale and retail prices for maximum gain. Ergo, we pay strict attention to the numbers generated from the MktMetrics program to spot their intent. To that end, our focus is concentrated on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Dow Jones Industrial Average trading range- High: 11,198.73 / Low: 9,961.52

DJIA- Week Ending February 24, 2006
MktMetrics Statistical Analysis:

DJIA Close: 11,061.85 vs Last week: 11,115.32 down -53.47 / Prior week: up +196.27
21-day moving average: 10,944.95 vs Last week: 10,870.71 +74.24 / Prior week: +31.51
DJIA Trend: Unchanged 74% vs Last week: 74% (High 94% / Low 10%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 65% vs Last week: 68% (High 88% / Low 10%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 0.634% vs Last week: 0.307 (High 2.11 / Low 0.19)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish 71% vs Last week: Bullish 66% (High 84% / Low 12%)
DJIA Resistance: Current- 11,135 vs Intermediate- 11,325
DJIA Support: Current- 10,755 vs Intermediate- 10,565
DJIA Money Flow Index: 58% vs Last week: 61% (High 97% / Low 08%)
DJIA Current Directional Indicator: 16.3 vs Last week: 11.2 (High 35.4 / Low -28.4)
21-Day M/A Price Advance/Decline Line: 242.5 vs Last week:165.3 (High 647 / Low -455)
21-Day M/A Volume Advance/Decline Line:-45.3 vs Last week:-86.0(High 188/ Low -367)
DJIA Price vs 21-Day M/A: 1.07% vs Last week: 2.25% (High 4.36% / Low -3.56%)
DJIA Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD): BUY(-) vs Last week: BUY(+)
DJIA Overbought/Oversold Index (CCI): 44 vs Last week: 147 (High +240 / Low -202)
DJIA Stochastic 20-Day Indicator: 80 vs Last week: 91 (High 100 / Low 00)
DJIA Relative Strength 14-Day Indicator: 70 vs Last week: 64 (High 97 / Low 12)
DJIA Day/50-Day Moving Average Volume: 0.8 vs Last week: 1.0 (High 1.4 / Low 0.3)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: .066% vs Last week: .021% (High +.187 %/ Low -.241%)
Institutional Demand Factor: 54.32 vs Last week: 57.55 (High 57.55 / Low 22.19)
Institutional Inventory Factor: 62.52 vs Last week: 68.45 (High 70.12 / 39.29)
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: .145 vs Last week: .069 (High .349 / -.414)
Speculation Indicator: -.010 vs Last week: .067 (High +.590 / Low -1.023)
Investor Sentiment Index: 89 vs Last week: 85 (High 128 / Low 68)
*********************************************************************************
Exchange Traded Funds- Trend/Sector Analysis: (Change +/-)
Diamonds-Dow 30
DIA: +.26 vs Last week: +.12 (High .62 / Low -.48) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 47-
Spiders-S&P 500
SPY: +.15 vs Last week: -.06 (High .62 / Low -.54) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 64+
Spiders-S&P 600 Mid-Cap
MDY: +.24 vs Last week: +.04 (High .85 / Low -.64) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
Russell 2000 Small-Cap
IWM: +.25 vs Last week: +.23 (High .51 / Low -.42) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100
Nasdaq 100 Large Growth
QQQQ: +.09 vs Last week: -.08 (High .54 / Low -.35) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 89-
1. Biotech
BBH: +.13 vs Last week: -.33 (High 1.58 / Low -1.02)Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 80
2. Broadband
BDH: +.39 vs Last week: +.30 (High .57 / Low -.32) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 99+
3. Emerging Markets
EEM: +.01 vs Last week: +.18 (High .84 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 68-
4. EAFE Global Equities
EFA: +.08 vs Last week: +.02 (High .56 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
5. Canada
EWC: -.07 vs Last week: +.00 (High .52 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 16-
6. Sweden
EWD: +.02 vs Last week: -.10 (High .56 / Low -.20) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 85+
7. Germany
EWG: +.21 vs Last week: +.23 (High .61 / Low -.18) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 99-
8. Hong Kong
EWH: +.18 vs Last week: +.17 (High .37 / Low -.25) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:100
9. Japan
EWJ: +.24 vs Last week: +.14 (High .63 / Low -.43) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:100
10. Belgium
EWK: +.15 vs Last week: +.02 (High .60 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 99-
11. Malaysia
EWM: +.31 vs Last week: +.22 (High .29 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:100
12. France
EWQ: +.05 vs Last week: +.24 (High .56 / Low -.19) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 95-
13. Singapore
EWS: -.07 vs Last week: -.15 (High .37 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:75+
14. Taiwan
EWT: +.01 vs Last week: +.03 (High .23 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:31-
15. United Kingdom
EWU: +.06 vs Last week: +.09 (High .42 / Low -.19) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 99+
16. South Korea
EWY: +.25 vs Last week: +.13 (High .43 / Low -.34) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:100
17. Internet
HHH: -.06 vs Last week: -.24 (High .50 / Low -.72) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 25+
18. Internet Architecture
IAH: -.26 vs Last week: -.40 (High .65 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 24-
19. Comex Gold
IAU: +.02 vs Last week: +.07 (High .81 / Low -.55) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 92-
20. Biotechnology
IBB: +.54 vs Last week: +.29 (High .58 / Low -.62) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100
21. Utilities
IDU: -.01 vs Last week: -.09 (High .52 / Low -.54) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:78-
22. Natural Resources
IGE: -.27 vs Last week: -.29 (High .88 / Low -.65) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:50-
23. Networking
IGN: -.02 vs Last week: -.09 (High .38 / Low -.46) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 45-
24. Software
IGV: -.05 vs Last week: -.24 (High .33 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:76
25. Semiconductor
IGW: +.02 vs Last week: -.15 (High .62 / Low -.58) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:85-
26. Internet Infrastructure
IIH: +.12 vs Last week: +.01 (High .37 / Low -.23) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:100+
27. Mid-Cap 400 Blend
IJH: +.21 vs Last week: +.09 (High .42 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY DemandFactor:100
28. Mid-Cap 400 Growth
IJK: +.15 vs Last week: -.03 (High .38 / Low -.24) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:99+
29. Small-Cap 600
IJR: +.34 vs Last week: +.40 (High .83 / Low -.16) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100
30. Global Financials
IXG: +.13 vs Last week: -.05 (High .52 / Low -.33) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:49-
31. Consumer Cyclical
IYC: -.05 vs Last week: -.28 (High .36 / Low -.64) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:16-
32. Energy
IYE: -.22 vs Last week: -.33 (High .79 / Low -.69) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:74-
33. Healthcare
IYH: +.20 vs Last week: +.02 (High .39 / Low -.44) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:98-
34. Industrial
IYJ: +.42 vs Last week: +.13 (High .41 / Low -.25) Rating: BUY DemandFactor:95-
35. Consumer Non-Cyclical
IYK: -.16 vs Last week: -.47 (High .31 / Low -.56) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:06
36. Basic Materials
IYM: +.01 vs Last week: +.16 (High .38 / Low -.52) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 66-
37. Real Estate
IYR: +.40 vs Last week: +.29 (High .52 / Low -.38) Rating: BUY DemandFactor:98-
38. Transportation Average
IYT: +.46 vs Last week: +.37 (High .80 / Low -.52) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100
39. Technology
IYW: -.15 vs Last week: -.20 (High .42 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:57-
40. Telecommunications
IYZ: +.37 vs Last week: +.49 (High .28 / Low -.30) Rating: Buy Demand Factor: 84-
41. Oil Services
OIH: -.46 vs Last week: -.62 (High 1.63/ Low -.85) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:73-
42. Pharmaceutical
PPH: +.25 vs Last week: -.05 (High .47 / Low -.61) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:43
43. Regional Bank
RKH: +.66 vs Last week: -.31 (High .88 / Low -.48) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
44. Retail
RTH: +.20 vs Last week: +.14 (High .58 / Low -.58) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:62-
45. Semiconductor
SMH: -.04 vs Last week: -.11 (High .45 / Low -.52) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:59-
46. Software
SWH: +.06 vs Last week: -.02 (High .51 / Low -.41) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:77+
47. Lehman 20+ Treasury Bond Fund
TLT: +.18 vs Last week: +.10 (High .34 / Low -.44) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:96-
48. Telecommunications
TTH: +.31 vs Last week: +.33 (High .54 / Low -.31) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 88+
49. Utilities
UTH: -.05 vs Last week: -.22 (High .68 / Low -.65) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:81+
50. Wireless
WMH: +.30 vs Last week: +.21 (High .55 / Low -.50) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 94-
51. S&P Energy Select
XLE: -.19 vs Last week: -.26 (High .76 / Low -.32) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:13-
52. S&P Financial Select
XLF: +.15 vs Last week: -.04 (High .31 / Low -.23) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:69+
53. Technology
XLK: +.06 vs Last week: -.04 (High .34 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:80-
54. Consumer Staples
XLP: +.19 vs Last week: -.17 (High .28 / Low -.29) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:54+
55. Healthcare Select
XLV: +.23 vs Last week: +.01 (High .37 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:100
56. Industrial Sector Index
XLY: +.12 vs Last week: +.05 (High .22 / Low -.45) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:86-

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know"

posted by Douglas Gale at 3:12 PM 0 comments

Thursday, February 23, 2006

Stock Market Now Appears Quite Vulnerable

Attn: Friday no GFME Blog. Second round of MktMetrics trading technology due next week.

Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Look" to: http://www.mktmetrics.com/ - see for yourself at what prices Specialists and Market Makers buy and sell stocks. No credit card required!
Track our successful growth on: www.mktmetrics.com/usage

Wednesday 02-22-06: DJIA closed 11,137.17 up +68.11
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,911.19 up +21.36

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday February 23 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 29%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 29% probability to be "Up" Thursday. The DJIA Flow of Funds failed to advance yesterday, the MACD remains at resistance, but the DJIA Trend did moved higher. We have witnessed recently many non-confirmations at these DJIA 4 1/2 year highs and view this as a false move into higher territory. There is major DJIA resistance at 11,200. The S&P resembles a double top. The NASDAQ Composite is at a declining top. The lower NYSE volume recently has illustrated that the Specialists and Market Makers have not been participating in this late stage rally. In other words, distribution is occurring and a retracement is most likely. It is a good idea to lock in profits at this time. We are under the impression that the Stock Market is running out of steam. It is now best that Investors go to cash and for more aggressive accounts start shorting stocks when the DJIA Trend reverses its current upward momentum, which still has not occurred, but could change rather suddenly. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 29% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 81% vs. Yesterday 74% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 65% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Unch. Today 65% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 70% vs. Yesterday 67% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 84.4% vs. Yesterday 80.4% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 28% vs. Yesterday 27% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today 11% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 23% vs. Yesterday 18% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 31% vs. Yesterday 28% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 05% vs. Yesterday 02% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today 01% vs. Yesterday -02% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Unch. Today 50% vs. Yesterday 50% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today -01% vs. Yesterday -05% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today -32% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today 14% vs. Yesterday 03% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:37 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

"Wall Street Week"

LATE FEBRUARY: SECOND ROUND OF MKTMETRICS TRADING TECHNOLOGY
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Look" to: http://www.mktmetrics.com/ - see for yourself at what prices Specialists and Market Makers buy and sell stocks. No credit card required!
Track our successful growth on: www.mktmetrics.com/usage

Tuesday 02-22-06: DJIA closed 11,069.06 down -46.26
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,889.71 up +19.12

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday February 22 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 71%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 71% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. Tuesday's DJIA theoretical low of 11,011.18 bounced off of its 8-day moving average. Furthermore, Wednesdays have recently produced positive days. So we expect a move up today for trading. The DJIA Flow of Funds moved up a notch yesterday, but the MACD remains at resistance and so does the DJIA Trend. We have witnessed recently many non-confirmations at these DJIA 4 1/2 year highs and view this as a false move into higher territory. Whether or not this is a major top is immaterial. The technicals at this stage are simply saying that distribution is occurring and a retracement is most likely. It is a good idea to lock in profits at this time. As a guest (last name was Lynch)on Luis Rukeyser's Wall Street Week once said when Luis asked: "How do you consistently make money in the Stock Market?" Mr. Lynch replied: "I always sell too soon." The point being, it is always hard to capture the top of a major move up. Therefore, we strongly suggest Investors go to cash and for more aggressive accounts start shorting stocks when the DJIA Trend reverses its current upward momentum, which, still has not occurred. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 71% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Unch. Today 74% vs. Yesterday 74% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Unch. 68% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Rising Today 65% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 67% vs. Yesterday 66% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 80.4% vs. Yesterday 85.9% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 27% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today +09% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 18% vs. Yesterday 04% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 28% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 02% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today -02% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 50% vs. Yesterday 37% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today -05% vs. Yesterday -09% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Rising Today -20% vs. Yesterday -26% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today 03% vs. Yesterday -04% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:28 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

Stock Market- Breakout Or Brakedown?

LATE FEBRUARY: SECOND ROUND OF MKTMETRICS TRADING TECHNOLOGY
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Look" to: http://www.mktmetrics.com/ - see for yourself at what prices Specialists and Market Makers buy and sell stocks. No credit card required!
Track our successful growth on: www.mktmetrics.com/usage

Friday 02-17-06: DJIA closed 11,115.32 down -5.36
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,870.71 up +11.18

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday February 21 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 52%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 52% probability to be "Up" Tuesday as compared to last Wednesday's 10%, Thursday's 29% and Friday's 26% "Up" probabilities. We point this out because these low results pave the way towards a big decline that we expect commenced Friday and should see a negative close today. The DJIA Flow of Funds moved lower, MACD is at resistance, but the Trend moved higher in Friday's trading. We have witnessed recently many non-confirmations at these DJIA 4 1/2 year highs and view this as a false move into higher territory. Whether or not this is a major top is immaterial. The technicals at this stage are simply saying that distribution is occurring and a retracement is most likely. It is a good idea to lock in profits and wait for better conditions to buy. Go to cash and for more aggressive accounts start shorting stocks when the DJIA Trend reverses its current upward momentum. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 52% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 74% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Unch. 68% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Falling Today 61% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 66% vs. Yesterday 63% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 85.9% vs. Yesterday 88.6% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Unch. Today 12% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Falling Today -06% vs. Yesterday -03% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Falling Today 04% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Falling Today 23% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -08% vs. Yesterday -02% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Falling Today -11% vs. Yesterday 01% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Falling Today 37% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today -09% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today -26% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Unch. Today -04% vs. Yesterday -04% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:29 AM 0 comments

Saturday, February 18, 2006

The Weekly MktMetrics Stock Market Analysis

Our belief is that the Stock Market is controlled by the Specialists and Market Makers or Exchange Insiders. We developed MktMetrics over a four year period and performed a 30-year computer generated study to test our findings. Our sole purpose was to produce a mirror image of where the Exchange Insiders buy and sell their stock inventory. We hope you will subscribe to http://www.mktmetrics.com/ and financially benefit by its consistent accuracy. After performing our extensive research, we found that the Exchange Insiders control the direction of the Stock Market by moving individual members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to establish a trend for the purpose of accumulating and distributing stock at wholesale and retail prices for maximum gain. Ergo, we pay strict attention to the numbers generated from the MktMetrics program to spot their intent. To that end, our focus is concentrated on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Dow Jones Industrial Average trading range- High: 11,178.80 / Low: 9,961.52

DJIA- Week Ending February 17, 2006
MktMetrics Statistical Analysis:

DJIA Close: 11,115.32 vs Last week: 10,919.05 up +196.27 / Prior week: up +125.43
21-day moving average: 10,870.71 vs Last week: 10,839.20 +31.51 / Prior week: -33.30
DJIA Trend: Rising 74% vs Last week: 58% (High 94% / Low 10%)
DJIA Momentum: Rising 68% vs Last week: 61% (High 88% / Low 10%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling .307% vs Last week: 1.01 (High 2.11 / Low 0.19)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish 66% vs Last week: Bullish 55% (High 84% / Low 12%)
DJIA Resistance: Current- 11,060 vs Intermediate- 11,250
DJIA Support: Current- 10,680 vs Intermediate- 10,490
DJIA Money Flow Index: 61% vs Last week: 45% (High 97% / Low 08%)
DJIA Current Directional Indicator: 11.2 vs Last week: +5.9 (High 35.4 / Low -28.4)
21-Day M/A Price Advance/Decline Line: 165.3 vs Last week:0.4 (High 647 / Low -455)
21-Day M/A Volume Advance/Decline Line:-86.0 vs Last week:-203.4(High 188/ Low -367)
DJIA Price vs 21-Day M/A: 2.25% vs Last week: 0.74% (High 4.36% / Low -3.56%)
DJIA Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD): BUY(+) vs Last week: BUY(-)
DJIA Overbought/Oversold Index (CCI): 147 vs Last week: +59 (High +240 / Low -202)
DJIA Stochastic 20-Day Indicator: 91 vs Last week: 61 (High 100 / Low 00)
DJIA Relative Strength 14-Day Indicator: 64 vs Last week: 66 (High 97 / Low 12)
DJIA Day/50-Day Moving Average Volume: 1.0 vs Last week: 1.0 (High 1.4 / Low 0.3)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: .021% vs Last week: -.076% (High +.187 %/ Low -.241%)
Institutional Demand Factor: 57.55 vs Last week: 43.74 (High 57.55 / Low 22.19)
Institutional Inventory Factor: 68.45 vs Last week: 55.42 (High 70.12 / 39.29)
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: .069 vs Last week: -.101 (High .349 / -.414)
Speculation Indicator: .067 vs Last week: -.119 (High +.590 / Low -1.023)
Investor Sentiment Index: 85 vs Last week: 83 (High 128 / Low 68)
*********************************************************************************
Exchange Traded Funds- Trend/Sector Analysis: (Change +/-)
Diamonds-Dow 30
DIA: +.12 vs Last week: -.24 (High .62 / Low -.48) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 57+
Spiders-S&P 500
SPY: -.06 vs Last week: -.35 (High .62 / Low -.54) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 59+
Spiders-S&P Mid-Cap
MDY: +.04 vs Last week: -.07 (High .85 / Low -.64) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 97+
Russell 2000 Small-Cap
IWM: +.23 vs Last week: +.15 (High .51 / Low -.42) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
Nasdaq 100 Large Growth
QQQQ: -.08 vs Last week: -.18 (High .54 / Low -.35) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 91+
1. Biotech
BBH: -.33 vs Last week: -.54 (High 1.58 / Low -1.02)Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 80+
2. Broadband
BDH: +.30 vs Last week: +.29 (High .57 / Low -.32) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 98+
3. Emerging Markets
EEM: +.18 vs Last week: +.05 (High .84 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 86+
4. EAFE Global Equities
EFA: +.02 vs Last week: +.00 (High .56 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 94+
5. Canada
EWC: +.00 vs Last week: -.05 (High .52 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 28+
6. Sweden
EWD: -.10 vs Last week: -.08 (High .56 / Low -.20) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 67+
7. Germany
EWG: +.23 vs Last week: +.18 (High .61 / Low -.18) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
8. Hong Kong
EWH: +.17 vs Last week: +.27 (High .37 / Low -.25) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:100
9. Japan
EWJ: +.14 vs Last week: +.08 (High .63 / Low -.43) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:100+
10. Belgium
EWK: +.02 vs Last week: +.01 (High .60 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
11. Malaysia
EWM: +.22 vs Last week: +.19 (High .29 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:100
12. France
EWQ: +.24 vs Last week: +.14 (High .56 / Low -.19) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 97+
13. Singapore
EWS: -.15 vs Last week: +.04 (High .37 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:74-
14. Taiwan
EWT: +.03 vs Last week: -.09 (High .23 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:49+
15. United Kingdom
EWU: +.09 vs Last week: +.10 (High .42 / Low -.19) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 92+
16. South Korea
EWY: +.13 vs Last week: +.07 (High .43 / Low -.34) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:100+
17. Internet
HHH: -.24 vs Last week: -.55 (High .50 / Low -.72) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 23+
18. Internet Architecture
IAH: -.40 vs Last week: -.47 (High .65 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 33+
19. Comex Gold
IAU: +.07 vs Last week: -.06 (High .81 / Low -.55) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 96+
20. Biotechnology
IBB: +.29 vs Last week: +.06 (High .58 / Low -.62) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
21. Utilities
IDU: -.09 vs Last week: -.06 (High .52 / Low -.54) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:82+
22. Natural Resources
IGE: -.29 vs Last week: -.18 (High .88 / Low -.65) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:63+
23. Networking
IGN: -.09 vs Last week: -.08 (High .38 / Low -.46) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 51-
24. Software
IGV: -.24 vs Last week: -.34 (High .33 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:76-
25. Semiconductor
IGW: -.15 vs Last week: -.01 (High .62 / Low -.58) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:87+
26. Internet Infrastructure
IIH: +.01 vs Last week: -.15 (High .37 / Low -.23) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:95+
27. Mid-Cap 400 Blend
IJH: +.09 vs Last week: -.04 (High .42 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY+ DemandFactor:100+
28. Mid-Cap 400 Growth
IJK: -.03 vs Last week: -.14 (High .38 / Low -.24) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:98+
29. Small-Cap 600
IJR: +.40 vs Last week: +.39 (High .83 / Low -.16) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
30. Global Financials
IXG: -.05 vs Last week: -.20 (High .52 / Low -.33) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:51-
31. Consumer Cyclical
IYC: -.28 vs Last week: -.32 (High .36 / Low -.64) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:17+
32. Energy
IYE: -.33 vs Last week: -.18 (High .79 / Low -.69) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:82+
33. Healthcare
IYH: +.02 vs Last week: -.06 (High .39 / Low -.44) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:99+
34. Industrial
IYJ: +.13 vs Last week: -.05 (High .41 / Low -.25) Rating: BUY+ DemandFactor:100+
35. Consumer Non-Cyclical
IYK: -.47 vs Last week: -.56 (High .31 / Low -.56) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:06+
36. Basic Materials
IYM: +.16 vs Last week: +.02 (High .38 / Low -.52) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 94+
37. Real Estate
IYR: +.29 vs Last week: +.00 (High .52 / Low -.38) Rating: BUY+ DemandFactor:100+
38. Transportation Average
IYT: +.37 vs Last week: +.21 (High .80 / Low -.52) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
39. Technology
IYW: -.20 vs Last week: -.21 (High .42 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:66+
40. Telecommunications
IYZ: +.49 vs Last week: +.13 (High .28 / Low -.30) Rating: Buy Demand Factor: 100+
41. Oil Services
OIH: -.62 vs Last week: -.02 (High 1.63/ Low -.85) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:74-
42. Pharmaceutical
PPH: -.05 vs Last week: -.24 (High .47 / Low -.61) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:43+
43. Regional Bank
RKH: +.31 vs Last week: -.11 (High .88 / Low -.48) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 86+
44. Retail
RTH: +.14 vs Last week: -.14 (High .58 / Low -.58) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:73+
45. Semiconductor
SMH: -.11 vs Last week: -.22 (High .45 / Low -.52) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:76+
46. Software
SWH: -.02 vs Last week: +.14 (High .51 / Low -.41) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:76-
47. Lehman 20+ Treasury Bond Fund
TLT: +.10 vs Last week: +.15 (High .34 / Low -.44) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:97+
48. Telecommunications
TTH: +.33 vs Last week: +.20 (High .54 / Low -.31) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100
49. Utilities
UTH: -.22 vs Last week: -.15 (High .68 / Low -.65) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:77+
50. Wireless
WMH: +.21 vs Last week: +.06 (High .55 / Low -.50) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 97
51. S&P Energy Select
XLE: -.26 vs Last week: -.09 (High .76 / Low -.32) Rating: SELL Demand Factor:32-
52. S&P Financial Select
XLF: -.04 vs Last week: -.33 (High .31 / Low -.23) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:58+
53. Technology
XLK: -.04 vs Last week: -.12 (High .34 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:85+
54. Consumer Staples
XLP: -.17 vs Last week: -.23 (High .28 / Low -.29) Rating: Sell Demand Factor:40+
55. Healthcare Select
XLV: +.01 vs Last week: -.05 (High .37 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY Demand Factor:100+
56. Industrial Sector Index
XLY: +.05 vs Last week: -.08 (High .22 / Low -.45) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:90+

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know"

posted by Douglas Gale at 11:13 AM 0 comments

Friday, February 17, 2006

Stock Market Is Not Attractive At This Level

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Thursday 02-16-06: DJIA closed 11,120.68 up +61.71
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,859.53 up +12.65

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday February 17 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 26%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 26% probability to be "Up" Friday as compared to Wednesday's 10% and Thursday's 29% "Up" probabilities. We point this out because these low results pave the way towards a big decline that we expect will commence today. While the DJIA Flow of Funds, MACD and Trend moved up another notch in Thursday's trading, the Trend and Momentum results of unchanged, and many non-confirmations at these DJIA 4 1/2 year highs are signaling a false move. Whether or not this is a major top is immaterial. The technicals at this stage are simply saying that distribution is occurring and a retracement is most likely. It is a good idea to lock in profits and wait for better conditions to buy. Go to cash and for more aggressive accounts start shorting stocks. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 26% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Unch. Today 68% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Unch. 68% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Rising Today 65% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 63% vs. Yesterday 60% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 88.6% vs. Yesterday 82.9% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 12% vs. Yesterday 04% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today -03% vs. Yesterday -13% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 15% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 29% vs. Yesterday 27% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -02% vs. Yesterday -13% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today 01% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Falling Today 48% vs. Yesterday 63% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today -10% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Rising Today -17% vs. Yesterday -29% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today -04% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:58 AM 0 comments

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Stock Market Lofty Levels Cannot Sustain

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Wednesday 02-15-06: DJIA closed 11,058.97 up +30.58
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,846.88 up +7.75

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday February 16 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 29%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 29% probability to be "Up" Thursday as compared to Wednesday's 10% probability. We point this out because these low results pave the way towards a big decline forthcoming. While the DJIA Flow of Funds, MACD and Trend moved up another notch in Wednesday's trading, the Trend result and many non-confirmations at these DJIA fresh highs are signaling a false move. Whether or not this is a major top is immaterial. The technicals at this stage are simply saying that distribution is occurring and a retracement is most likely. It is a good idea to lock in profits and wait for better conditions to buy. Go to cash and start looking into shorting stocks. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 29% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 68% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 68% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Rising Today 61% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 60% vs. Yesterday 57% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 82.9% vs. Yesterday 76.3% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today 04% vs. Yesterday -04% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today -13% vs. Yesterday -22% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 09% vs. Yesterday 06% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 27% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -13% vs. Yesterday -16% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today -08% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 63% vs. Yesterday 46% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today -14% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today -29% vs. Yesterday -16% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today -11% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:28 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Stock Market Dictum: Buy Low, Sell High

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Tuesday 02-14-06: DJIA closed 11,028.39 up +136.07
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,839.13 up +3.26

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday February 15 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 10%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 10% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. The DJIA Flow of Funds, MACD and Trend moved up another notch in Tuesday's trading. The key ETF's shown below are reflecting positive Investor Sentiment at this time. There is an old saying on Wall Street: "Buy low, Sell high." I bring this up because we are now at the same Trend result that turned the DJIA down from the October high in 2005. There were many non-confirmations to yesterday's Stock Market rally. The fact that MktMetrics has forecasted only a 10% probability to be "Up" today, leads us to believe this is as good as it is going to get. Best to go to cash as you begin to look at shorting stocks. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 10% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 65% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 61% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Rising Today 58% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 57% vs. Yesterday 56% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 76.3% vs. Yesterday 66.0% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today -04% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today -22% vs. Yesterday -32% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 06% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 19% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -16% vs. Yesterday -19% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today -11% vs. Yesterday -21% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 46% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today -08% vs. Yesterday -02% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today -16% vs. Yesterday -07% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today -20% vs. Yesterday -29% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:32 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Stock Market Should Yield Positive Results Today

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Monday 02-13-06: DJIA closed 10,892.32 down -26.73
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,835.87 down -3.33

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday February 14 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 61%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 61% probability to be "Up" Tuesday. The DJIA Flow of Funds, MACD and Trend moved up another notch in Monday's trading. The key ETF's shown below are reflecting positive Investor Sentiment at this time. Yesterday's test of the declining DJIA 21-Day Moving Average held. The MktMetrics DJIA forecast today of 61% should yield positive results for the Stock Market. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 61% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 61% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 55% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Rising Today 52% vs. Yesterday 45% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 56% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 66.0% vs. Yesterday 69.6% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%) (DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today -20% vs. Yesterday -24% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today -32% vs. Yesterday -35% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today -06% vs. Yesterday -07% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Falling Today 14% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -19% vs. Yesterday -18% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today -21% vs. Yesterday -22% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 24% vs. Yesterday 21% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today -02% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Rising Today -07% vs. Yesterday -09% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today -29% vs. Yesterday -33% (High 28% / Low -33%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:26 AM 0 comments

Monday, February 13, 2006

Stock Market Monday To Be Profit Taking

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Friday 02-10-06: DJIA closed 10,919.05 up +35.70
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,839.20 down -5.93

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Monday February 13 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 26%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 26% probability to be "Up" Monday. The DJIA Flow of Funds, MACD and Trend moved up a notch for options and futures expiration on Friday. However, the key ETF's Investor Sentiment are not showing much appreciation. The MktMetrics forecast today of only 26% probability to be "Up" leads us to believe that today will be full of profit taking. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Monday: 26% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 58% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Rising 61% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Rising Today 45% vs. Yesterday 22% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 55% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 69.6% vs. Yesterday 65.3% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)
(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Unch. Today -24% vs. Yesterday -24% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Falling Today -35% vs. Yesterday -34% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Unch. Today -07% vs. Yesterday -07% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Unch. Today 15% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -18% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Falling Today -22% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 21% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Unch. Today -06% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today -09% vs. Yesterday -07% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Falling Today -33% vs. Yesterday -31% (High 28% / Low -23%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 6:55 AM 0 comments

Saturday, February 11, 2006

The Weekly MktMetrics Stock Market Analysis

Our belief is that the Stock Market is controlled by the Specialists and Market Makers or Exchange Insiders. We developed MktMetrics over a four year period and performed a 30-year computer generated study to test our findings. Our sole purpose was to produce a mirror image of where the Exchange Insiders buy and sell their stock inventory. We hope you will subscribe to http://www.mktmetrics.com/ and financially benefit by its consistent accuracy. After performing our extensive research, we found that the Exchange Insiders control the direction of the Stock Market by moving individual members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average to establish a trend for the purpose of accumulating and distributing stock at wholesale and retail prices for maximum gain. Ergo, we pay strict attention to the numbers generated from the MktMetrics program to spot their intent. To that end, our focus is concentrated on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Dow Jones Industrial Average trading range- High: 11,099.15 / Low: 9,961.52

DJIA- Week Ending February 10, 2006
MktMetrics Statistical Analysis:

DJIA Close: 10,919.05 vs Last week: 10,793.62 up +125.43 / Prior week: down -113.59
21-day moving average: 10,839.20 vs Last week: 10,872.50 -33.30 / Prior week: +16.15
DJIA Trend: Rising 58% vs Last week: 45% (High 94% / Low 10%)
DJIA Momentum: Rising 61% vs Last week: 52% (High 88% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish 55% vs Last week: Bullish 44% (High 84% / Low 12%)
DJIA Resistance: Current- 11,030 vs Intermediate- 11,220
DJIA Support: Current- 10,650 vs Intermediate- 10,460
DJIA Current Directional Indicator: +5.9 vs Last week: -4.1 (High +35.4 / Low -28.4)
21-Day M/A Price Advance/Decline Line: +0.4 vs Last week:+172.6 (High 647 / Low -455)
21-Day M/A Volume Advance/Decline Line:-203.4 vs Last week:-106.5(High 188/ Low -367)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: -.076% vs Last week: -.020% (High +.187 %/ Low -.241%)
Price vs 21-Day M/A: +0.74% vs Last week: -0.73% (High 4.36% / Low -3.56%)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD): BUY(-) vs Last week: SELL(-)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI): +59 vs Last week: -12 (High +240 / Low -202)
Money Flow Index: 45% vs Last week: 61% (High 97% / Low 08%)
Speculation Indicator: -.119 vs Last week: -.155 (High +.590 / Low -1.023)
Investor Sentiment Index: 83 vs Last week: 83 (High 128 / Low 68)
Stochastic 20-Day Indicator: 61 vs Last week: 53 (High 100 / Low 00)
Relative Strength 14-Day Indicator: 66 vs Last week: 41 (High 97 / Low 12)
Day/50-Day Moving Average Volume: 1.0 vs Last week: 1.1 (High 1.4 / Low 0.3)

*********************************************************************************
Exchange Traded Funds- Trend/Sector Analysis: (Change +/-)
DIA: -.24 vs Last week: -.06 (High .62 / Low -.48) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 12-
SPY: -.35 vs Last week: -.11 (High .62 / Low -.54) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 07-
MDY: -.07 vs Last week: +.29 (High .85 / Low -.64) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 87-
IWM: +.15 vs Last week: +.43 (High .51 / Low -.42) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 90-
QQQQ: -.18 vs Last week: +.00 (High .54 / Low -.35) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 77-
1. BBH -.54 vs Last week: -.41 (High 1.58 / Low -1.02)Rating: SELL-Demand Factor: 63-
2. BDH +.29 vs Last week: +.45 (High .57 / Low -.32) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 96+
3. EEM +.05 vs Last week: +.35 (High .84 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 82-
4. EFA +.00 vs Last week: +.24 (High .56 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 93-
5. EWC -.05 vs Last week: +.11 (High .52 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 04-
6. EWD -.08 vs Last week: +.11 (High .56 / Low -.20) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 60+
7. EWG +.18 vs Last week: +.34 (High .61 / Low -.18) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 94-
8. EWH +.27 vs Last week: +.24 (High .37 / Low -.25) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:100+
9. EWJ +.08 vs Last week: +.19 (High .63 / Low -.43) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 98-
10. EWK +.01 vs Last week: +.25 (High .60 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 87-
11. EWM +.19 vs Last week: +.21 (High .29 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:100/
12. EWQ +.14 vs Last week: +.35 (High .56 / Low -.19) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 85-
13. EWS +.04 vs Last week: +.09 (High .37 / Low -.21) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 77-
14. EWT -.09 vs Last week: -.08 (High .23 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:24-
15. EWU +.10 vs Last week: +.24 (High .42 / Low -.19) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 83-
16. EWY +.07 vs Last week: +.06 (High .43 / Low -.34) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 90-
17. HHH -.55 vs Last week: -.43 (High .50 / Low -.72) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 12-
18. IAH -.47 vs Last week: -.14 (High .65 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL-Demand Factor: 20+
19. IBB +.06 vs Last week: +.34 (High .58 / Low -.62) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 81+
20. IDU -.06 vs Last week: -.02 (High .52 / Low -.54) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:65-
21. IGE -.18 vs Last week: +.19 (High .88 / Low -.65) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:57-
22. IGN -.08 vs Last week: +.12 (High .38 / Low -.46) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 60+
23. IGV -.34 vs Last week: -.12 (High .33 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:85-
24. IGW -.01 vs Last week: +.36 (High .62 / Low -.58) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:83-
25. IIH -.15 vs Last week: +.01 (High .37 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:73-
26. IJH -.04 vs Last week: +.03 (High .42 / Low -.28) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:95-
27. IJK -.14 vs Last week: +.03 (High .38 / Low -.24) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:94-
28. IJR +.39 vs Last week: +.58 (High .83 / Low -.16) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 99-
29. IXG -.20 vs Last week: -.11 (High .52 / Low -.33) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:61+
30. IYC -.32 vs Last week: -.22 (High .36 / Low -.64) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:15-
31. IYE -.18 vs Last week: +.19 (High .79 / Low -.69) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:81-
32. IYH -.06 vs Last week: +.08 (High .39 / Low -.44) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:84-
33. IYJ -.05 vs Last week: -.07 (High .41 / Low -.25) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:72+
34. IYK -.56 vs Last week: -.47 (High .31 / Low -.56) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:00-
35. IYM +.02 vs Last week: +.09 (High .38 / Low -.52) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 90-
36. IYR +.00 vs Last week: +.31 (High .52 / Low -.38) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:95+
37. IYT +.21 vs Last week: +.08 (High .80 / Low -.52) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 94-
38. IYW -.21 vs Last week: +.04 (High .42 / Low -.21) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:59-
39. IYZ +.13 vs Last week: +.18 (High .28 / Low -.30) Rating: Buy Demand Factor: 91-
40. OIH -.02 vs Last week: +.68 (High 1.63/ Low -.85) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 86-
41. PPH -.24 vs Last week: -.05 (High .47 / Low -.61) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:20-
42. RKH -.11 vs Last week: -.27 (High .88 / Low -.48) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 60+
43. RTH -.14 vs Last week: +.01 (High .58 / Low -.58) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:34+
44. SMH -.22 vs Last week: -.12 (High .45 / Low -.52) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:65-
45. SWH +.14 vs Last week: +.14 (High .51 / Low -.41) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 89+
46. TLT +.15 vs Last week: +.13 (High .34 / Low -.44) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 90+
47. TTH +.20 vs Last week: +.19 (High .54 / Low -.31) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
48. UTH -.15 vs Last week: -.15 (High .68 / Low -.65) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:45-
49. WMH +.06 vs Last week: +.16 (High .55 / Low -.50) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 97+
50. XLE -.09 vs Last week: +.20 (High .76 / Low -.32) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:53-
51. XLF -.33 vs Last week: -.22 (High .31 / Low -.23) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:22-
52. XLK -.12 vs Last week: +.07 (High .34 / Low -.21) Rating: Buy Demand Factor: 68-
53. XLP -.23 vs Last week: -.16 (High .28 / Low -.29) Rating: Sell- Demand Factor:12/
54. XLV -.05 vs Last week: -.09 (High .37 / Low -.28) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor:66+
55. XLY -.08 vs Last week: +.04 (High .22 / Low -.45) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor:73+

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know"

posted by Douglas Gale at 10:31 AM 0 comments

Friday, February 10, 2006

Stock Market Remains Suspect

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Thursday 02-09-06: DJIA closed 10,883.35 up +24.73
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,845.13 down -6.10

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday February 10 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 52%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 52% probability to be "Up" Friday. Our concern is that yesterday was only a 16% probability indicating that the DJIA is not that strong at this time. The DJIA Flow of Funds took a dive yesterday. However, the MACD and Trend did move up. All the indices had higher highs and higher lows. Please note though that the majority of the Key ETF Statistics posted below, declined yesterday. We felt there would be some follow-through from Wednesday's run-up, but the Stock Market gave much of that back in afternoon trading. The Stock Markets remains suspect as the DJIA Trend had experienced severe damage last week. Caution would be advised here to allow for options and futures to expire today. Friday could be a real downer. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 52% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 55% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 55% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Falling Today 22% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, but Unch. 52% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, but Falling 65.3% vs. Yesterday 69.0% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today -24% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Falling Today -34% vs. Yesterday -25% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Falling Today -07% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Falling Today 15% vs. Yesterday 28% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -20% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Falling Today -17% vs. Yesterday -13% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 15% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today -06% vs. Yesterday -05% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today -07% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Falling Today -31% vs. Yesterday -28% (High 28% / Low -23%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 8:41 AM 0 comments

Thursday, February 09, 2006

Stock Market Is Adjusting Today

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Wednesday 02-08-06: DJIA closed 10,858.62 up +108.86
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,851.23 down -7.30 (Rising)

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday February 9 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 16%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 16% probability to be "Up" Thursday. The DJIA Flow of Funds, MACD Momentum and Trend moved up yesterday. Areas of note is the fact that the NYSE Composite and Value Line Index had lower highs and lower lows. Also, the rally came up to the declining 21-day moving and stalled. We feel that there will be some follow-through from yesterday. However, this is not the time to load up on stocks as we have seen this before where the DJIA Trend is severely damaged and then a rally surfaces, only to allow the Exchange Insiders to adjust their inventory, before taking stocks lower. In summary, caution would be advised here to allow for options and futures to expire on Friday before making any judgments. Friday could be a real downer. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 16% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Rising Today 48% vs. Yesterday 42% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Rising 58% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Rising Today 52% vs. Yesterday 45% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, but Falling 52% vs. Yesterday 53% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, and Rising 69.0% vs. Yesterday 62.9% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)
(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today -17% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today -25% vs. Yesterday -28% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 09% vs. Yesterday 07% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 28% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today -11% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today -13% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 12% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today -05% vs. Yesterday -04% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Rising Today 08% vs. Yesterday 05% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today -28% vs. Yesterday -31% (High 28% / Low -23%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:35 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Stock Market May See A Positive Day Today

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Tuesday 02-08-06: DJIA closed 10,749.76 down -48.51
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,858.53 down -9.98 (Falling)

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday February 8 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 65%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 65% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. The DJIA Flow of Funds and Momentum are unchanged today. The DJIA Trend, MACD and most Moving Averages continue their decline. However, a few non-confirmations are beginning to show up on this decline. A positive day today will be met with selling pressure. It is our policy not to go against the DJIA Trend. We continue to believe a DJIA head and shoulders formation, a potential big negative that could become the genesis for a Bear Market, cannot be ruled out. Futures and options expire Friday, so expect continued volatility. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 65% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Falling Today 42% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Unch. 48% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Unch. Today 45% vs. Yesterday 45% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, but Falling 53% vs. Yesterday 56% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, but Falling 62.9% vs. Yesterday 71.2% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)
(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today -20% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Falling Today -28% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Falling Today 07% vs. Yesterday 33% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Falling Today 24% vs. Yesterday 45% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -14% vs. Yesterday -03% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Falling Today -17% vs. Yesterday -13% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Falling Today 08% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today -04% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today 05% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Falling Today -31% vs. Yesterday -22% (High 28% / Low -23%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:37 AM 0 comments

Tuesday, February 07, 2006

DJIA Trend Takes Another Dump

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Monday 02-07-06: DJIA closed 10,798.27 up +4.65
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,868.51 down -3.99 (Falling)

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Tuesday February 7 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 52%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 52% probability to be "Up" Tuesday. The DJIA Flow of Funds, Trend, MACD and most Moving Averages are picking up steam to the downside. There is good support that surfaced at Friday's close that allowed for yesterday's positive close. However, we continue to believe a DJIA head and shoulders formation, a potential big negative that could become the genesis for a Bear Market, cannot be ruled out. Futures and options expire Friday, so expect continued volatility. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Tuesday: 52% (High 100% / Low 0%)
Trend: Falling Today 48% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 48% vs. Yesterday 52% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Falling Today 45% vs. Yesterday 61% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Falling 56% vs. Yesterday 57% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 71.2% vs. Yesterday 68.6% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Unch. Today -06% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today -10% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 33% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 45% vs. Yesterday 43% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Falling Today -03% vs. Yesterday 00% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Falling Today -13% vs. Yesterday -12% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 13% vs. Yesterday 08% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 09% vs. Yesterday -02% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Rising Today 29% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Unch. Today -22% vs. Yesterday -22% (High 28% / Low -23%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:59 AM 0 comments

Friday, February 03, 2006

Stock Market Futures And Options Expire Soon

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MktMetrics Subscribers and GFME Blog Viewers: No Weekly Edition will be published Saturday. Statistics and Market Comment will be posted Monday.

Thursday 02-02-06: DJIA closed 10,852.95 down -101.03
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,876.63 up +0.27 (Falling)

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Friday February 3 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 87%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 87% probability to be "Up" Friday. Thursday had a rupture in the Markets and should not discounted. Although the DJIA Flow of Funds remained unchanged, the Trend and MACD did see a down-tick. Often, when there is a sea change near the top of its range, the DJIA Trend signals it is time to sell all no productive stocks in your Portfolio as it is a last opportunity before renewed selling pressure continues. We strongly suggest you do this today. Large "dumps" of stocks as we saw yesterday, changes the direction of the Trend and most often is a signal of poor market conditions to come. Most likely, the current has shifted and a new scenario has commenced. A DJIA head and shoulders formation, a potential big negative that could become the genesis for a Bear Market, cannot be ruled out. Futures and options expire next week. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Friday: 87%
Trend: Falling Today 65% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 52% vs. Yesterday 55% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Unch. Today 65% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 55% vs. Yesterday 54% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 74.9% vs. Yesterday 84.0% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)
(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today +05% vs. Yesterday +26% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Falling Today 04% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Falling Today 38% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Falling Today 51% vs. Yesterday 71% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Falling Today 12% vs. Yesterday 27% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Falling Today -04% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Falling Today 17% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Falling Today 07% vs. Yesterday 30% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today 27% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Falling Today -23% vs. Yesterday -08% (High 28% / Low -23%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:38 AM 0 comments

Thursday, February 02, 2006

Stock Market Near Term Outlook

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Wednesday: DJIA closed 10,953.95 up +89.09
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,876.36 up +11.30 (Rising)

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Thursday February 2 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 23%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 23% probability to be "Up" Thursday. Monday and Tuesday were down days as MktMetrics had predicted. Wednesday had a 71% chance of being up and performed nicely. Today, the DJIA Flow of Funds are unchanged, with the Trend and MACD in buy territory. Yesterday, our Market Comment stated the Stock Market in general, and the DJIA in particular, were at the cross-roads. We still see that as true. The reason is that the current DJIA chart pattern resembles a head and shoulders formation, a potential big negative that could become the genesis for a Bear Market. However, we cannot pass judgment until the DJIA Trend changes (our favorite indicator). Therefore, the cross-roads remain uncertain as this could either present a sea change to the down side, or a potential upside horizontal break-out. Futures and option expire in two weeks, so expect plenty of volatility as this cycle is a short one. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Thursday: 23%
Trend: Rising Today 68% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Rising 55% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Unch. Today 65% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 54% vs. Yesterday 50% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 84.0% vs. Yesterday 77.1% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)
(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

******************************************************************************
10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Rising Today +26% vs. Yesterday +09% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Rising Today 29% vs. Yesterday 17% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 68% vs. Yesterday 60% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Rising Today 71% vs. Yesterday 63% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Rising Today 27% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Rising Today 13% vs. Yesterday 04% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 24% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 30% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Falling Today 48% vs. Yesterday 63% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Rising Today -08% vs. Yesterday -09% (High 28% / Low -20%)

Information provided by http://www.mktmetrics.com
A Marketing Alliance with Charles Schwab's CyberTrader

Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:41 AM 0 comments

Wednesday, February 01, 2006

Stock Market Is At The Cross-Roads

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Tuesday: DJIA closed 10,864.86 down -35.06
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 10,865.10 up +3.81 (Falling)

Before the U. S. Stock Market Opening
Wednesday February 1 Stock Market Forecast
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 71%

Market Comment: The MktMetrics DJIA forecast has posted 71% probability to be "Up" Wednesday. Monday and Tuesday were down days as MktMetrics had predicted. Wednesday starts off with a down-tick in the DJIA Flow of Funds, but the Trend and MACD are unchanged. So it appears as though the Stock Market in general, and the DJIA in particular, are at the cross-roads. Therefore, caution is advised here to allow Wednesday's results to dictate as to the direction the Exchange Insiders are planning to do. Keep in mind that often the beginning of a new month can be positive. Futures and option expire in two weeks, so expect plenty of volatility as this cycle is a short one. Good luck and good trading.

DJIA Statistics: Above 50% Bullish - Below 50% Bearish
DJIA Probability of Being "Up" Wednesday: 71%
Trend: Unchanged Today 65% vs. Yesterday 65% (High 94% / Low 10%)
Momentum: Falling 48% vs. Yesterday 58% (High 87% / Low 13%)
Flow of Funds: Falling Today 65% vs. Yesterday 68% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 50% vs. Yesterday 48% (High 86% / Low 18%)

Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Falling 77.1% vs. Yesterday 83.4% (High 93.9 / Low 12.2%)(DJIA, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100) Aggregate)

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10-Key ETF Statistics: Above 0% Bullish - Below 0% Bearish
DIA: Falling Today +09% vs. Yesterday +14% (High 62% / Low -48%)
SPY: Falling Today 17% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 62% / Low -54%)
MDY: Rising Today 60% vs. Yesterday 53% (High 85% / Low -64%)
IWM: Unch. Today 63% vs. Yesterday 63% (High 71% / Low -42%)
QQQQ: Unch. Today 19% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 54% / Low -35%)
SMH: Falling Today 04% vs. Yesterday 09% (High 45% / Low -52%)
IYT: Rising Today 23% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 80% / Low -51%)
IDU: Rising Today 29% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 61% / Low -64%)
XLE: Rising Today 63% vs. Yesterday 59% (High 57% / Low -24%)
XLF: Falling Today -09% vs. Yesterday -06% (High 28% / Low -20%)

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Douglas Gale, President (jdg8119@gmail.com)
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!"

posted by Douglas Gale at 7:30 AM 0 comments