Stock Market Forecast Monday September 15 2008
Information provided by: www.MktMetrics.com
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Look" to: www.MktMetrics.com - See for yourself before you make a trade, at what prices NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Friday 9-12-08 DJIA closed: 11,421.99 -11.72 vs prior day: 11,433.71 +164.79
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 11,450.71 -5.28 vs prior day: 11,455.99 -9.95
(DJIA closed -.25% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs -.19% prior day)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday September 15 Stock Market Forecast
Probability Percent of "Up" at the Close
DJIA Probability of closing "Up" Monday: 39%
DIA Probability of closing "Up" Monday: 67%
(DJIA & DIA are weighted differently- Avg: 53%)
DIA Past 4 Mondays: Rising 38.7% / 37.5% / 39.2% / 40.0%
DIA Put/Call Ratio: Monday 0.80 vs. Friday 0.80 (High 1.04 / Low 0.78)
Mean= 0.91 Definition: Baseline= 1.00 (<1.00=> 1.00= Bearish)
DIA MACD (12,26): SELL in effect
DIA Opening Power: Rising 21-day moving average (Open Up)
DIA Closing Power: Falling 21-day moving average (Close Down)
Dow Jones Industrial Average Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising Today Up 12 vs. Down 19 (+1 vs -3 prior day)
DJIA Trend: Rising Today 29% vs Yesterday 35% (High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Rising Today 39% vs Yesterday 35% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling Today 1.26 vs Yesterday 2.59 (High 6.98 / Low -1.14)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Rising Today +206 vs Yesterday +51 (High 1450 / Low -2095)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: High 1450 5-23-07/Low -2095 7-15-08(today +206 .14% of High)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 11,456 / Intermediate Term 11,653 / Breakout 11,851
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 11,450 / Intermediate Term 11,250 / Breakdown 11,050
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Futures and Options expire in 5 days, September worst performer of 12
2. Banking, Insurance, Oil factors are stock market movers for Monday
3. All Key ETFs are all trading below their 21-day moving averages
4. DIA moving averages 8-day 113.78 vs 21-day 114.60 -.82 vs -.81, Bearish
5. FOMC meeting tomorrow to decide key interest rates going forward
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Rising Today .07% vs Yesterday .03% (High .29%/Low -.31%) Mean= -.02% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Rising Today 45% vs Yesterday 42% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 52% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Today 42.48% vs Yesterday 39.13% (High 86.84% / Low 13.13%) Mean= 50.0% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Today 44.71% vs Yesterday 41.74% (High 81.06%/Low 14.58%) Mean= 50.4% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Rising Today -.02% vs Yesterday -.06% (High .35% / -.52%) Mean= -.03% Closed near its Mean, neutral yet increasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish/Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling Unch#4 Today 34% vs. Yesterday 34% (High 89% / Low 8%) Mean= 53.5% Closed below its Mean, Negative yet flat for fourth day.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising Today 53.5% vs Yesterday 49.2% (High 100.0% / Low 4.8%) Mean= 52.4% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Rising Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday -6% (High 95% / Low -95%)
SPY: Rising Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday -15 (High 77% / Low -102%)
MDY: Rising Trend Today -7% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 91% / Low -138%)
IWM: Unch Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 71% / Low -70%)
QQQQ: Unch Trend Today -35% vs. Yesterday -35% (High 54% / Low -43%)
SMH: Rising Trend Today -36% vs. Yesterday -44% (High 48% / Low -53%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 80% / Low -95%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -15% (High 82% / Low -85%)
XLF: Rising Trend Today 18% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 45% / Low -58%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 3% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Rising Trend Today 35% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 64% / Low -85%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today 31% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 69% / Low -56%)
(MktMetrics.com tracks 114 Exchange Traded Funds for our subscribers)
Stock Market Plurality: (a daily short-term overbought/oversold indicator)
100 “High” vs 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising Trend Today 114 vs. Yesterday 81 (High 367 / Low 3)
Demand Factor "0": Rising Trend Today 18 vs. Yesterday 12 (High 360 / Low 3)
Information provided by www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
Next Day's Advance Market Decisions:
"Not always right, just very seldom wrong."
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Look" to: www.MktMetrics.com - See for yourself before you make a trade, at what prices NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Friday 9-12-08 DJIA closed: 11,421.99 -11.72 vs prior day: 11,433.71 +164.79
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 11,450.71 -5.28 vs prior day: 11,455.99 -9.95
(DJIA closed -.25% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs -.19% prior day)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday September 15 Stock Market Forecast
Probability Percent of "Up" at the Close
DJIA Probability of closing "Up" Monday: 39%
DIA Probability of closing "Up" Monday: 67%
(DJIA & DIA are weighted differently- Avg: 53%)
DIA Past 4 Mondays: Rising 38.7% / 37.5% / 39.2% / 40.0%
DIA Put/Call Ratio: Monday 0.80 vs. Friday 0.80 (High 1.04 / Low 0.78)
Mean= 0.91 Definition: Baseline= 1.00 (<1.00=> 1.00= Bearish)
DIA MACD (12,26): SELL in effect
DIA Opening Power: Rising 21-day moving average (Open Up)
DIA Closing Power: Falling 21-day moving average (Close Down)
Dow Jones Industrial Average Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising Today Up 12 vs. Down 19 (+1 vs -3 prior day)
DJIA Trend: Rising Today 29% vs Yesterday 35% (High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Rising Today 39% vs Yesterday 35% (High 97% / Low 10%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling Today 1.26 vs Yesterday 2.59 (High 6.98 / Low -1.14)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Rising Today +206 vs Yesterday +51 (High 1450 / Low -2095)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: High 1450 5-23-07/Low -2095 7-15-08(today +206 .14% of High)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 11,456 / Intermediate Term 11,653 / Breakout 11,851
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 11,450 / Intermediate Term 11,250 / Breakdown 11,050
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Futures and Options expire in 5 days, September worst performer of 12
2. Banking, Insurance, Oil factors are stock market movers for Monday
3. All Key ETFs are all trading below their 21-day moving averages
4. DIA moving averages 8-day 113.78 vs 21-day 114.60 -.82 vs -.81, Bearish
5. FOMC meeting tomorrow to decide key interest rates going forward
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Rising Today .07% vs Yesterday .03% (High .29%/Low -.31%) Mean= -.02% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Rising Today 45% vs Yesterday 42% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 52% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Today 42.48% vs Yesterday 39.13% (High 86.84% / Low 13.13%) Mean= 50.0% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Today 44.71% vs Yesterday 41.74% (High 81.06%/Low 14.58%) Mean= 50.4% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Rising Today -.02% vs Yesterday -.06% (High .35% / -.52%) Mean= -.03% Closed near its Mean, neutral yet increasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish/Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bearish Falling Unch#4 Today 34% vs. Yesterday 34% (High 89% / Low 8%) Mean= 53.5% Closed below its Mean, Negative yet flat for fourth day.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising Today 53.5% vs Yesterday 49.2% (High 100.0% / Low 4.8%) Mean= 52.4% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Rising Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday -6% (High 95% / Low -95%)
SPY: Rising Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday -15 (High 77% / Low -102%)
MDY: Rising Trend Today -7% vs. Yesterday -20% (High 91% / Low -138%)
IWM: Unch Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 71% / Low -70%)
QQQQ: Unch Trend Today -35% vs. Yesterday -35% (High 54% / Low -43%)
SMH: Rising Trend Today -36% vs. Yesterday -44% (High 48% / Low -53%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 80% / Low -95%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -15% (High 82% / Low -85%)
XLF: Rising Trend Today 18% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 45% / Low -58%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 3% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Rising Trend Today 35% vs. Yesterday 24% (High 64% / Low -85%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today 31% vs. Yesterday 32% (High 69% / Low -56%)
(MktMetrics.com tracks 114 Exchange Traded Funds for our subscribers)
Stock Market Plurality: (a daily short-term overbought/oversold indicator)
100 “High” vs 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising Trend Today 114 vs. Yesterday 81 (High 367 / Low 3)
Demand Factor "0": Rising Trend Today 18 vs. Yesterday 12 (High 360 / Low 3)
Information provided by www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
Next Day's Advance Market Decisions:
"Not always right, just very seldom wrong."
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:45 AM
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