Stock Market Forecast Wednesday June 24 2009
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Tuesday 6-23-09 DJIA Closed: 8,322.91 -16.1 vs. prior day: 8,339.01 -200.72
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,596.98 +2.17 vs. prior day: 8,594.81 +2.24
DJIA Closed: -3.19% Below Rising 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -2.98% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Wednesday June 24 Stock Market Forecast
Wednesdays: Falling 51.9% / 52.7% / 54.7% / 55.7% / 56.3%
Historic High: 79.1% (10-13-07) / Low: 47.1% (11-19-08)
DJIA Trend Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Falling 7 vs. Down 24 (-6 vs -3 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling contracting (8-day 85.34) vs. (21-day 86.11) -0.77(-.95) vs. Prior -0.18(-.56) (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Falling 23% vs Prior 42% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Unch#2 84% vs. Prior 84% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 0.55 vs. Prior 1.55 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Falling 20 vs. Prior 24 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 26 vs. Prior 38 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Rising 27 vs. Prior 25 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Rising 403 vs. Prior 281 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,596.98 / Intermediate Term 8,747.44 / Breakout 8,897.90
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,594.81 / Intermediate Term 8,445.46 / Breakdown 8,296.10
Wednesday's Trading Highlights:
1. Fed says recession easing, inflation not a threat -
2. Citi boosting salaries to offset lower bonuses -
3. SEC pitches tightened rules for money-market funds -
4. Benefits tax advances in health care negotiations -
5. Durable goods orders up in May; new home sales dip -
6. Weak economy will zap holiday trips, AAA says -
7. China's Sinopec makes $7.2B grab for Addax -
8. Energy prices drop with gasoline supplies surging -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current -229.27 vs. Previous day -245.09
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 3,074.99 vs. Previous day 3,304.27
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Rising Current .01 vs. Previous day -.01 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 35% vs. Previous day 48% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 56.32 vs. Previous day 55.84% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 49.32 vs. Previous day 52.19% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Unch Current +.01% vs. Previous day +.01% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet flat.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling 66% vs. Previous day 71% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 75.9% vs Previous day 77.5% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday -1% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today 9% vs. Yesterday 9% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 18% vs. Yesterday 18% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 26% vs. Yesterday 26% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today 15% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -8% vs. Yesterday -8% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -5% vs. Yesterday -5% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday 5% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday -3% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Developing an oversold condition, but still Bearish
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 19 vs. Previous day 9 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Falling 23 vs. Previous day 32 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Rising -151 vs. Previous day -157 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Wednesday Morning Market Observation:
Blog was down for 12 hours and this section will be available on Thursday.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 7:31 AM
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