Stock Market Forecast Monday June 29 2009
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
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Friday 6-26-09 DJIA Closed: 8,438.39 -34.01 vs. prior day: 8,472.40 +172.54
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,598.57 +1.65 vs. prior day: 8,596.92 +8.21
DJIA Closed: -1.86% Below Rising 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -1.45% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday June 29 Stock Market Forecast
Mondays: Falling 24.4% / 25% / 26% / 25% / 25%
(Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 24.4% (6-22-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 10 vs. Down 21 (+2 vs +2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling contracting (8-day 84.33) vs. (21-day 86.11) -1.78(-.14) vs. Prior -1.64(-.29) (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 32% vs Prior 26% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 87% vs. Prior 94% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 0.21 vs. Prior 1.88 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 43 vs. Prior 30 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 25 vs. Prior 20 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 32 vs. Prior 33 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 307 vs. Prior 347 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,598.57 / Intermediate Term 8,749.04 / Breakout 8,899.50
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,596.92 / Intermediate Term 8,447.26 / Breakdown 8,297.60
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Madoff due in court for sentencing today -
2. European markets up modestly after solid euro data -
3. IEA sees oil demand up 0.6 pct a year through 2014 -
4. Enterprise, Teppco merge, form energy partnership -
5. Japan industrial output up 5.9 percent in May -
6. Reports: China loan spree goes to stocks, property -
7. For modest earners, relief repaying student loans -
8. Oil hovers near $69 as traders eye US economy -
9. Toyota technology has brain waves move wheelchair -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current -8.19 vs. Previous day -34.30
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,894.30 vs. Previous day 2,902.48
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.01 vs. Previous day .02 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed at its Mean, Neutral and flat.
Institutional Money Flow: Unch Current 39% vs. Previous day 39% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, negative yet flat.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 59.64% vs. Previous day 59.13% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 52.96% vs. Previous day 51.39% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current .01% vs. Previous day .06% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Unch 59% vs. Previous day 59% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet flat.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 81.9% vs Previous day 82.5% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 7% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today 11% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today 13% vs. Yesterday 18% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 11% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 19% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 16% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 25% vs. Yesterday 27% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday 1% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday 4% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 15% vs. Yesterday 21% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today 2% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Unch Trend Today -0% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Rising from an oversold condition
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 98 vs. Previous day 61 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 12 vs. Previous day 4 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Rising -53 vs. Previous day -77 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Monday Morning Market Observation:
Over the past six trading sessions investors have witnessed four consecutive down days, followed by Thursday's up day, then Friday's down day. The past two weeks, the stock market has been down. Black Fridays are cemented in investor's minds and appear every long term cycle, typically during the March/April or September/October months. Blue Mondays are not talked about as much, but come up periodically in such long term cycles. As we look back over the past year, it is easy to recollect the pain of the September/October stock market crash of 2008. The beginning of March in 2009 was also newsworthy that caused investors to fear a depression was at hand. These events are of importance for not only making investors more cautious in their thinking going forward, but also to wonder what type of recovery will we see over the ensuing 3-5 years. The U, W or L shaped stock market and economic recoveries are often discussed as we seek a clarity as to our future.
In recent blogs posted, I have mentioned that it appears that the DJIA will at least come down to the 7900 level of support. I have also mentioned in the blogs that I prefer the thought process of the 7100 level before we can begin to appreciate a real recovery. As I poured over the numbers this past weekend generated from recent trading activity, I can't help myself to think that Traders may see a Blue Monday reappear as soon as today! Last Monday there was a downward spike in volume distribution, and the same spike occurred in Friday's trading. This information, coupled with so many other indicators of the same negativity makes me sense that a Blue Monday could be at hand. While I am not always right in my predictions, I have been at this for 34 years and believe that perhaps my stable of clientele should be aware of this possibility occurring once again going into this week's trading.
Food for thought as Mondays have been the worst performers of the week lately and the stock market has been under distribution, not accumulation.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Friday 6-26-09 DJIA Closed: 8,438.39 -34.01 vs. prior day: 8,472.40 +172.54
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,598.57 +1.65 vs. prior day: 8,596.92 +8.21
DJIA Closed: -1.86% Below Rising 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -1.45% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday June 29 Stock Market Forecast
Mondays: Falling 24.4% / 25% / 26% / 25% / 25%
(Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 24.4% (6-22-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 10 vs. Down 21 (+2 vs +2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling contracting (8-day 84.33) vs. (21-day 86.11) -1.78(-.14) vs. Prior -1.64(-.29) (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 32% vs Prior 26% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 87% vs. Prior 94% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 0.21 vs. Prior 1.88 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 43 vs. Prior 30 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 25 vs. Prior 20 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 32 vs. Prior 33 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 307 vs. Prior 347 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,598.57 / Intermediate Term 8,749.04 / Breakout 8,899.50
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,596.92 / Intermediate Term 8,447.26 / Breakdown 8,297.60
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Madoff due in court for sentencing today -
2. European markets up modestly after solid euro data -
3. IEA sees oil demand up 0.6 pct a year through 2014 -
4. Enterprise, Teppco merge, form energy partnership -
5. Japan industrial output up 5.9 percent in May -
6. Reports: China loan spree goes to stocks, property -
7. For modest earners, relief repaying student loans -
8. Oil hovers near $69 as traders eye US economy -
9. Toyota technology has brain waves move wheelchair -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current -8.19 vs. Previous day -34.30
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,894.30 vs. Previous day 2,902.48
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.01 vs. Previous day .02 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed at its Mean, Neutral and flat.
Institutional Money Flow: Unch Current 39% vs. Previous day 39% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, negative yet flat.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 59.64% vs. Previous day 59.13% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 52.96% vs. Previous day 51.39% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current .01% vs. Previous day .06% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Unch 59% vs. Previous day 59% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet flat.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 81.9% vs Previous day 82.5% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 7% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today 11% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today 13% vs. Yesterday 18% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 11% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 19% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 16% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 25% vs. Yesterday 27% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday 1% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday 4% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 15% vs. Yesterday 21% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today 2% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Unch Trend Today -0% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Rising from an oversold condition
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 98 vs. Previous day 61 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 12 vs. Previous day 4 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Rising -53 vs. Previous day -77 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Monday Morning Market Observation:
Over the past six trading sessions investors have witnessed four consecutive down days, followed by Thursday's up day, then Friday's down day. The past two weeks, the stock market has been down. Black Fridays are cemented in investor's minds and appear every long term cycle, typically during the March/April or September/October months. Blue Mondays are not talked about as much, but come up periodically in such long term cycles. As we look back over the past year, it is easy to recollect the pain of the September/October stock market crash of 2008. The beginning of March in 2009 was also newsworthy that caused investors to fear a depression was at hand. These events are of importance for not only making investors more cautious in their thinking going forward, but also to wonder what type of recovery will we see over the ensuing 3-5 years. The U, W or L shaped stock market and economic recoveries are often discussed as we seek a clarity as to our future.
In recent blogs posted, I have mentioned that it appears that the DJIA will at least come down to the 7900 level of support. I have also mentioned in the blogs that I prefer the thought process of the 7100 level before we can begin to appreciate a real recovery. As I poured over the numbers this past weekend generated from recent trading activity, I can't help myself to think that Traders may see a Blue Monday reappear as soon as today! Last Monday there was a downward spike in volume distribution, and the same spike occurred in Friday's trading. This information, coupled with so many other indicators of the same negativity makes me sense that a Blue Monday could be at hand. While I am not always right in my predictions, I have been at this for 34 years and believe that perhaps my stable of clientele should be aware of this possibility occurring once again going into this week's trading.
Food for thought as Mondays have been the worst performers of the week lately and the stock market has been under distribution, not accumulation.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:23 AM
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