Stock Market Forecast Thursday June 25 2009
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Wednesday 6-24-09 DJIA Closed: 8,299.86 -23.05 vs. prior day: 8,322.91 -16.1
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,588.71 -8.27 vs. prior day: 8,596.98 +2.17
DJIA Closed: -3.36% Below Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -3.19% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Thursday June 25 Stock Market Forecast
Thursdays: Falling 53.0% / 55.7% / 54.0% / 53.0% / 53.8%
(Higher Close from Open is greatest for Thursday)
Historic High: 66.7% (11-13-08) / Low 52.8% (3-12-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Falling 6 vs. Down 25 (-1 vs -6 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling contracting (8-day 84.68) vs. (21-day 86.03) -1.35(-.58) vs. Prior -0.77(-.59) (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Falling 19% vs Prior 23% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 81% vs. Prior 84% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 1.16 vs. Prior 0.55 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Falling 14 vs. Prior 20 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 14 vs. Prior 26 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 19 vs. Prior 27 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 270 vs. Prior 403 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,596.98 / Intermediate Term 8,743.14 / Breakout 8,889.30
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,588.71 / Intermediate Term 8,438.40 / Breakdown 8,288.10
Thursday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures slip before GDP, jobless claims data -
2. AIG moves to spin off 2 units, reduce gov't debt -
3. Toyota president says product lineup under review -
4. China accuses Google of spreading pornography -
5. Ericsson names new CEO as Svanberg goes to BP -
6. Sinopec seeks capacity, reserves with Addax bid -
7. Fed chairman Bernanke faces House committee today -
8. Oil hovers near $69 amid mixed crude demand signs -
9. Lennar posts slightly larger 2nd-quarter loss -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current -138.20 vs. Previous day -229.27
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,936.78 vs. Previous day 3,074.99
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.05 vs. Previous day .01 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 19% vs. Previous day 35% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 53.00 vs. Previous day 56.32% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 45.77 vs. Previous day 49.32% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.08% vs. Previous day +.01% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling 61% vs. Previous day 66% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 76.8% vs Previous day 75.9% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -15% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday 7% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday 7% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 11% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 19% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 1% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -14% vs. Yesterday -3% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -7% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 4% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday 4% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -17% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Rising from an oversold condition
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 28 vs. Previous day 19 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 36 vs. Previous day 23 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Rising -122 vs. Previous day -151 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Thursday Morning Market Observation:
The stock market is in a Bearish mode. The NYSE Composite advances vs. declines 21-day moving average went into negative territory on Monday, the very same day that the DIA 8-day moving average vs. 21-day moving average went negative. The result of Wednesday's trading for the DJIA 21- day moving average went negative as well. Very Bearish trading for a stock market that is suppose to be on the mend.
As a new trading day begins, we look to Thursday's results to be a rebound off of recent depressed levels of an oversold condition. While a 55% probability for DIA to be "Up" today is not too meaningful, the Exchange Insiders (specialists and market makers) will want to raise prices after the previous four down days of selling. The stock market and the MktMetrics' DJIA Outlook are moving lower, but any one-day bounce may not be strong enough to generate a sustaining move to make the Outlook and Trend readings go higher from their current negative posture.
At the present time, there are only 6 out of 31 (Dow 30 + DIA) issues that remain positive, which illustrates how bad the Trend of the Big Caps are faring. However, it is well advised not to go overboard on puts and short positions as the stock market has its own way of evening out an oversold condition. A 100+ point move up in the Dow today may happen. My experience in using the MktMetrics.com program is to wait for the DJIA Outlook to reverse course to up from down, before coming out of cash and back into the stock market. That will be the sure sign that the tide has turned and is safe to return to quality stock investing.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Wednesday 6-24-09 DJIA Closed: 8,299.86 -23.05 vs. prior day: 8,322.91 -16.1
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,588.71 -8.27 vs. prior day: 8,596.98 +2.17
DJIA Closed: -3.36% Below Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -3.19% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Thursday June 25 Stock Market Forecast
Thursdays: Falling 53.0% / 55.7% / 54.0% / 53.0% / 53.8%
(Higher Close from Open is greatest for Thursday)
Historic High: 66.7% (11-13-08) / Low 52.8% (3-12-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Falling 6 vs. Down 25 (-1 vs -6 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling contracting (8-day 84.68) vs. (21-day 86.03) -1.35(-.58) vs. Prior -0.77(-.59) (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Falling 19% vs Prior 23% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 81% vs. Prior 84% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 1.16 vs. Prior 0.55 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Falling 14 vs. Prior 20 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 14 vs. Prior 26 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 19 vs. Prior 27 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 270 vs. Prior 403 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,596.98 / Intermediate Term 8,743.14 / Breakout 8,889.30
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,588.71 / Intermediate Term 8,438.40 / Breakdown 8,288.10
Thursday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures slip before GDP, jobless claims data -
2. AIG moves to spin off 2 units, reduce gov't debt -
3. Toyota president says product lineup under review -
4. China accuses Google of spreading pornography -
5. Ericsson names new CEO as Svanberg goes to BP -
6. Sinopec seeks capacity, reserves with Addax bid -
7. Fed chairman Bernanke faces House committee today -
8. Oil hovers near $69 amid mixed crude demand signs -
9. Lennar posts slightly larger 2nd-quarter loss -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current -138.20 vs. Previous day -229.27
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,936.78 vs. Previous day 3,074.99
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.05 vs. Previous day .01 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 19% vs. Previous day 35% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 53.00 vs. Previous day 56.32% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 45.77 vs. Previous day 49.32% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.08% vs. Previous day +.01% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling 61% vs. Previous day 66% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 76.8% vs Previous day 75.9% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -15% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday 7% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday 7% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 11% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 19% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 1% vs. Yesterday 12% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -14% vs. Yesterday -3% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -7% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 4% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday 4% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -17% vs. Yesterday -10% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Rising from an oversold condition
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 28 vs. Previous day 19 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 36 vs. Previous day 23 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Rising -122 vs. Previous day -151 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Thursday Morning Market Observation:
The stock market is in a Bearish mode. The NYSE Composite advances vs. declines 21-day moving average went into negative territory on Monday, the very same day that the DIA 8-day moving average vs. 21-day moving average went negative. The result of Wednesday's trading for the DJIA 21- day moving average went negative as well. Very Bearish trading for a stock market that is suppose to be on the mend.
As a new trading day begins, we look to Thursday's results to be a rebound off of recent depressed levels of an oversold condition. While a 55% probability for DIA to be "Up" today is not too meaningful, the Exchange Insiders (specialists and market makers) will want to raise prices after the previous four down days of selling. The stock market and the MktMetrics' DJIA Outlook are moving lower, but any one-day bounce may not be strong enough to generate a sustaining move to make the Outlook and Trend readings go higher from their current negative posture.
At the present time, there are only 6 out of 31 (Dow 30 + DIA) issues that remain positive, which illustrates how bad the Trend of the Big Caps are faring. However, it is well advised not to go overboard on puts and short positions as the stock market has its own way of evening out an oversold condition. A 100+ point move up in the Dow today may happen. My experience in using the MktMetrics.com program is to wait for the DJIA Outlook to reverse course to up from down, before coming out of cash and back into the stock market. That will be the sure sign that the tide has turned and is safe to return to quality stock investing.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:23 AM
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