Stock Market Forecast Tuesday June 23 2009
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
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Monday 6-22-09 DJIA Closed: 8,339.01 -200.72 vs. prior day: 8,539.73 -15.87
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,594.81 +2.24 vs. prior day: 8,592.57 +5.60
DJIA Closed: -2.98% Below Rising 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -.61% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Tuesday June 23 Stock Market Forecast
Tuesdays: Rising 50.0% / 49.0% / 49.0% / 48.0% / 47.2%
(Lower Open is greatest for Tuesday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 46.2% (5-5-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Falling 13 vs. Down 18 (-3 vs -0 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling contracting (8-day 85.92) vs. (21-day 86.10) -0.18(-.56) vs. Prior 0.38(-.36) (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Falling 42% vs Prior 52% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Unch 84% vs. Prior 84% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 1.55 vs. Prior 0.80 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Falling 24 vs. Prior 25 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 38 vs. Prior 47 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 25 vs. Prior 36 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 281 vs. Prior 456 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,594.81 / Intermediate Term 8,745.21 / Breakout 8,895.60
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,592.57 / Intermediate Term 8,443.28 / Breakdown 8,294.00
Tuesday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures rise ahead of home sales data -
2. Toyota shareholders OK founder's grandson as head -
3. Nissan to mass produce electric cars in 2012 -
4. AP source: Ford, Nissan, Tesla to get govt loans -
5. House Democrats to open hearings on health bill -
6. Google trial in Italy: freedom v. responsibility -
7. German consumer confidence rising -
8. Oil slides to near $67 on grim World Bank forecast -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -245.09 vs. Previous day -132.97
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 3,304.27 vs. Previous day 3,549.36
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.01 vs. Previous day .03 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed at baseline, Neutral and flat.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 48% vs. Previous day 65% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 55.84 vs. Previous day 60.97% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 52.19 vs. Previous day 56.71% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current +.01% vs. Previous day +.06% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling 71% vs. Previous day 74% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 77.5% vs Previous day 84.9% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 17% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today 9% vs. Yesterday 21% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 18% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 26% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today 15% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -8% vs. Yesterday 2% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -5% vs. Yesterday 5% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 9% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday -8% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Falling 9 vs. Previous day 47 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 32 vs. Previous day 19 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -157 vs. Previous day -87 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Tuesday Morning Market Observation:
Today, the futures are up on the morning thus far. Tuesdays have recently seen the initial hour of trading down and then rising after the morning sell-off. Personally, I like to wait until at least one-half of the previous day's total volume in the DIA has been reached before passing judgment on how the rest of the trading day is going to perform. You may wish to do the same.
I are amazed after a 200.72 point drop in the DJIA yesterday that the 21-day moving average is still rising, even though it is only by 2.24. However, the 8-day versus 21-day moving averages for the DIA is a totally different scenario as the 21-day was penetrated by the 8-day to the downside as a result of Monday's trading. This is a favorite indicator of mine as it is a proof that the DIA internal strength is collapsing and is clear indication of what could become a more negative environment going forward, unless the DIA can make a swift recovery.
The upcoming fourth of July holiday should bring see better results for a summer rally, but that is still ten days away and anything could happen between now and then. Today the MktMetrics oscillator for DIA is showing an 87% probability of being "Up" on the day and the Dow Volatility has increased sharply, which is Bullish for Tuesday's trading. Let's see what happens.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Monday 6-22-09 DJIA Closed: 8,339.01 -200.72 vs. prior day: 8,539.73 -15.87
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,594.81 +2.24 vs. prior day: 8,592.57 +5.60
DJIA Closed: -2.98% Below Rising 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -.61% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Tuesday June 23 Stock Market Forecast
Tuesdays: Rising 50.0% / 49.0% / 49.0% / 48.0% / 47.2%
(Lower Open is greatest for Tuesday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 46.2% (5-5-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 6-15-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Falling 13 vs. Down 18 (-3 vs -0 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling contracting (8-day 85.92) vs. (21-day 86.10) -0.18(-.56) vs. Prior 0.38(-.36) (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Falling 42% vs Prior 52% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Unch 84% vs. Prior 84% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 1.55 vs. Prior 0.80 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Falling 24 vs. Prior 25 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 38 vs. Prior 47 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 25 vs. Prior 36 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 281 vs. Prior 456 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,594.81 / Intermediate Term 8,745.21 / Breakout 8,895.60
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,592.57 / Intermediate Term 8,443.28 / Breakdown 8,294.00
Tuesday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures rise ahead of home sales data -
2. Toyota shareholders OK founder's grandson as head -
3. Nissan to mass produce electric cars in 2012 -
4. AP source: Ford, Nissan, Tesla to get govt loans -
5. House Democrats to open hearings on health bill -
6. Google trial in Italy: freedom v. responsibility -
7. German consumer confidence rising -
8. Oil slides to near $67 on grim World Bank forecast -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -245.09 vs. Previous day -132.97
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 3,304.27 vs. Previous day 3,549.36
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.01 vs. Previous day .03 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed at baseline, Neutral and flat.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 48% vs. Previous day 65% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 55.84 vs. Previous day 60.97% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 52.19 vs. Previous day 56.71% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current +.01% vs. Previous day +.06% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling 71% vs. Previous day 74% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 77.5% vs Previous day 84.9% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 17% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 20% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today 9% vs. Yesterday 21% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 18% vs. Yesterday 23% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 26% vs. Yesterday 29% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today 15% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -8% vs. Yesterday 2% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -5% vs. Yesterday 5% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 9% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday -8% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Falling 9 vs. Previous day 47 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 32 vs. Previous day 19 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -157 vs. Previous day -87 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Tuesday Morning Market Observation:
Today, the futures are up on the morning thus far. Tuesdays have recently seen the initial hour of trading down and then rising after the morning sell-off. Personally, I like to wait until at least one-half of the previous day's total volume in the DIA has been reached before passing judgment on how the rest of the trading day is going to perform. You may wish to do the same.
I are amazed after a 200.72 point drop in the DJIA yesterday that the 21-day moving average is still rising, even though it is only by 2.24. However, the 8-day versus 21-day moving averages for the DIA is a totally different scenario as the 21-day was penetrated by the 8-day to the downside as a result of Monday's trading. This is a favorite indicator of mine as it is a proof that the DIA internal strength is collapsing and is clear indication of what could become a more negative environment going forward, unless the DIA can make a swift recovery.
The upcoming fourth of July holiday should bring see better results for a summer rally, but that is still ten days away and anything could happen between now and then. Today the MktMetrics oscillator for DIA is showing an 87% probability of being "Up" on the day and the Dow Volatility has increased sharply, which is Bullish for Tuesday's trading. Let's see what happens.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:45 AM
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