Stock Market Forecast Tuesday June 30 2009
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Monday 6-29-09 DJIA Closed: 8,529.38 +90.99 vs. prior day: 8,438.39 -34.01
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,599.95 +1.38 vs. prior day: 8,598.57 +1.65
DJIA Closed: -.82% Below Rising 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -1.86% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Tuesday June 30 Stock Market Forecast
Tuesdays: Falling 49.0% / 50.0% / 49.0% / 49.0% / 48.0%
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 46.2% (5-5-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-29-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 11 vs. Down 20 (+1 vs +2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Unch (8-day 84.34) vs. (21-day 86.10) -1.76 vs. Prior -1.78 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 35% vs Prior 32% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Rising 94% vs. Prior 87% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Unch 0.22 vs. Prior 0.21 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 69 vs. Prior 43 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 36 vs. Prior 25 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Rising 38 vs. Prior 32 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Rising 687 vs. Prior 307 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,599.95 / Intermediate Term 8,750.43 / Breakout 8,900.90
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,598.57 / Intermediate Term 8,448.79 / Breakdown 8,299.00
Tuesday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures point to higher open ahead of data -
2. World stocks awaiting cue for next move - -
3. Iraqi oil licensing round runs into trouble -
4. FDA panel to vote on painkiller restrictions -
5. Attorneys await decision on Stanford's bond -
6. Japan unemployment rises to 5 1/2-year high -
7. Disney to boost HK park with $465M expansion -
8. Oil up to near $72 on dollar fall, Nigeria attack -
9. Taiwan opens door for Chinese investment -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current 17.93 vs. Previous day -8.19
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Summation Index: Rising Current 2,912.23 vs. Previous day 2,894.30
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.02 vs. Previous day -.01 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Unch#3 Current 39% vs. Previous day 39% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, negative yet flat.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 63.06% vs. Previous day 59.64% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 58.03% vs. Previous day 52.96% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.01% vs. Previous day .01% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 61% vs. Previous day 59% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 85.3% vs Previous day 81.9% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -6% vs. Yesterday -3% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today 10% vs. Yesterday 11% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today 10% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Unch Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 14% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 8% vs. Yesterday 16% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 9% vs. Yesterday 25% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -17% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Unch Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday -1% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 8% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -5% vs. Yesterday 2% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Unch Trend Today -0% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Rising
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 119 vs. Previous day 98 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Unch 12 vs. Previous day 12 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Rising -12 vs. Previous day -53 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Tuesday Morning Market Observation:
As I was watching CNBC before the market open on Monday, a floor trader stated that he felt the market had plenty of upside because the Administration continues to flood the markets and economy with unlimited money. How can the stock market not go up under these circumstances, he said. It is this kind of statement and others being promulgated that are seducing portfolio money managers and hedge fund operators into believing that the upside has no resistance. It is the panic of money managers' need to buy inventory to post on customers statements after the second quarter ends today and the notices go out in July to alert customers that they too, participated in the recent rise from the March lows. It is called window dressing, but in reality is eye wash to fool the public.
To meet the current demand that this folly is generating, there has to be sellers for all this pent-up requirement to buy, buy, buy inventory. Those sellers are the other side of the trade, a.k.a. Specialists, Market Makers and Broker-Dealers that are there to service the demand by selling into the strength of all those orders. That is the true essence of merchandising and the game of swapping cash for paper, I mean securities.
It is uncomfortable for a prediction to be off by a day or two, but the markets always correct and the Exchange Insiders (Agency Brokers, Market Makers and Specialist) rarely get stuck with inventory, and if they do, government/taxpayers are forced to reach into their pockets to replenish the cash to keep the game alive. Don't be lulled by what is going on in today's stock market trading. Be proactive, not reactive, and think like an Agency Dealer that is filling orders for their portfolio money managers customers that unaware and uninformed in the high rise offices.
PS: The Stock Market is subject to change without notice, expect the unexpected.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Monday 6-29-09 DJIA Closed: 8,529.38 +90.99 vs. prior day: 8,438.39 -34.01
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,599.95 +1.38 vs. prior day: 8,598.57 +1.65
DJIA Closed: -.82% Below Rising 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -1.86% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Tuesday June 30 Stock Market Forecast
Tuesdays: Falling 49.0% / 50.0% / 49.0% / 49.0% / 48.0%
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 46.2% (5-5-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-29-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 11 vs. Down 20 (+1 vs +2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Unch (8-day 84.34) vs. (21-day 86.10) -1.76 vs. Prior -1.78 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 35% vs Prior 32% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Rising 94% vs. Prior 87% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Unch 0.22 vs. Prior 0.21 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 69 vs. Prior 43 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 36 vs. Prior 25 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Rising 38 vs. Prior 32 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Rising 687 vs. Prior 307 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,599.95 / Intermediate Term 8,750.43 / Breakout 8,900.90
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,598.57 / Intermediate Term 8,448.79 / Breakdown 8,299.00
Tuesday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures point to higher open ahead of data -
2. World stocks awaiting cue for next move - -
3. Iraqi oil licensing round runs into trouble -
4. FDA panel to vote on painkiller restrictions -
5. Attorneys await decision on Stanford's bond -
6. Japan unemployment rises to 5 1/2-year high -
7. Disney to boost HK park with $465M expansion -
8. Oil up to near $72 on dollar fall, Nigeria attack -
9. Taiwan opens door for Chinese investment -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current 17.93 vs. Previous day -8.19
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Summation Index: Rising Current 2,912.23 vs. Previous day 2,894.30
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.02 vs. Previous day -.01 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Unch#3 Current 39% vs. Previous day 39% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, negative yet flat.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 63.06% vs. Previous day 59.64% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 58.03% vs. Previous day 52.96% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.01% vs. Previous day .01% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 61% vs. Previous day 59% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 85.3% vs Previous day 81.9% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -6% vs. Yesterday -3% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today 10% vs. Yesterday 11% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today 10% vs. Yesterday 13% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Unch Trend Today 6% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 14% vs. Yesterday 19% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 8% vs. Yesterday 16% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today 9% vs. Yesterday 25% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -17% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Unch Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday -1% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 8% vs. Yesterday 15% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -5% vs. Yesterday 2% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Unch Trend Today -0% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Rising
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 119 vs. Previous day 98 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Unch 12 vs. Previous day 12 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Rising -12 vs. Previous day -53 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Tuesday Morning Market Observation:
As I was watching CNBC before the market open on Monday, a floor trader stated that he felt the market had plenty of upside because the Administration continues to flood the markets and economy with unlimited money. How can the stock market not go up under these circumstances, he said. It is this kind of statement and others being promulgated that are seducing portfolio money managers and hedge fund operators into believing that the upside has no resistance. It is the panic of money managers' need to buy inventory to post on customers statements after the second quarter ends today and the notices go out in July to alert customers that they too, participated in the recent rise from the March lows. It is called window dressing, but in reality is eye wash to fool the public.
To meet the current demand that this folly is generating, there has to be sellers for all this pent-up requirement to buy, buy, buy inventory. Those sellers are the other side of the trade, a.k.a. Specialists, Market Makers and Broker-Dealers that are there to service the demand by selling into the strength of all those orders. That is the true essence of merchandising and the game of swapping cash for paper, I mean securities.
It is uncomfortable for a prediction to be off by a day or two, but the markets always correct and the Exchange Insiders (Agency Brokers, Market Makers and Specialist) rarely get stuck with inventory, and if they do, government/taxpayers are forced to reach into their pockets to replenish the cash to keep the game alive. Don't be lulled by what is going on in today's stock market trading. Be proactive, not reactive, and think like an Agency Dealer that is filling orders for their portfolio money managers customers that unaware and uninformed in the high rise offices.
PS: The Stock Market is subject to change without notice, expect the unexpected.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:44 AM
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