Stock Market Analysis Weekly ETF Edition
U.S. Economic Health Formula
Definition: (>1.00 is Bearish) (<1.00 is Bullish)
Sym Rating PrIS Trend Demand = Result
UUP SELL 37 18 88 143
USO SELL 40 -43 87 84 = 1.70
SPY SELL 43 -46 76 73
GLD SELL 15 -29 21 07 = 10.43
RTH SELL 29 -44 30 15
DBC SELL 35 -13 97 119 = 0.13
Conclusion 7-10-09:
(1.70+10.43+.13)/3 = 4.09 (Very Bearish)
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, yet Falling 74.8% vs Last week: 77.8% (Historic: High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean: 50.9%
DJIA Outlook: At Baseline, Falling 51% vs Last week: 63% (Historic: High 89% / Low 2% 3-6-09) Mean: 45.5%
(Definition: Baseline is 48 to 52, Neutral Zone)
DJIA Trading Range: High 14,164.53(10-11-07) / Low 6,443.27(3-6-09) (Range: 7,721.26) (Mean: 10,303.90)
DJIA Closed: 8,146.52 -134.22 vs. Last week: 8,280.74 -157.65
DJIA 21-day Moving Average: 8,424.28 -132.54 vs. Last week: 8,556.82 -40.10
DJIA Trend: Falling 16% vs. Last week: 39% (High 100% 3-31-09 / Low: 0% 6-27-08 9-13-08)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 74% vs. Last week: 81% (High 97% / Low 0% 10-24,11-12,11-21-08& 2-25,3-6-09)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 0.35% vs. Last week: 0.85% (High 9.80% 10-10-08 / Low -2.37% 11-28-08)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling -22 vs. Last week +324 (High 1,957 5-11-09 / Low -3,881 11-20-08)
DJIA Resistance: Falling 8,585.79 -120.77 vs. Last week 8,706.56 -42.47 (High: +236 4-3-09 Low: -543 10-24-08
DJIA Breakout: Falling 8,8719.10 vs. Last week 8,856.30
DJIA Support: Falling 8,276.84 -139.61 vs. Last week: 8,416.45 -30.81 (High: +224 4-10-09 Low: -525 10-24-08)
DJIA Breakdown: Falling 8,129.40 vs. Last week: 8,257.30
DJIA Regression Channel Statistics: Rising Current -.342 vs. Last week: -.354 (High +.463 / Low -.478 4-9-09)
DJIA Price Advance/Decline Line: Falling -178 vs. Last week: 7 (High +704 4-3-09 / Low -965 10-10-08)
DJIA Volume Advance/Decline Line: Falling -194 vs. Last week: -126 (High +349 / Low -646 10-27-08)
DJIA Price vs 21-Day Moving Average: Falling -3.30% vs. Last week: -3.23% (High 10.56% 3-26-09 / Low -19.26% 10-10-08)
DJIA Stochastic 5-Day Indicator: Falling 26 vs. Last week: 47 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA Stochastic 20-Day Indicator: Falling 13 vs. Last week: 26 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength Indicator: Rising 33 vs. Last week: 30 (High 97 / Low 11)
DJIA Overbought/Oversold (CCI): Falling -124 vs. Last week: -96 (High 255 / Low -285)
DJIA Volume vs 50-Day Moving Average: Rising 0.7 vs. Last week: 0.4 (High 3.3 / Low 0.3)
"Let's take a deeper look into what the Smart Money is currently doing with their Inventory."
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling -136.78 vs Last week: -59.32 (High 365 / Low -416)
Summation Index: Falling 2,141.91 vs Last week: 2,890.44 (High 4,822 5-12-09 / Low -4,699)
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling -.12% vs Last week: -.11% (High .29% (4-19-07) / Low -.31% (6-27-08)
Institutional Money Flow Index: Falling 13% vs Last week: 29% (High 97% 9-19,10-1-07, 4-3-09 / Low 0% 6-25,10-9,17,24,11-13-08; 2-26-09)
Institutional Demand Factor: Rising 55.77% vs Last week: 54.71% (High 86.8% / Low 8.16% 10-9-08)
Institutional Inventory Index: Falling 42.42% vs Last week: 50.65% (High 81.1% / Low 6.42% 10-9-08)
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling -.24 vs Last week: -.18 (High +.45 4-3-09 / Low -.77 10-10-08)
Institutional Sentiment Index: Falling 94 vs Last week: 98 (High 179 (5-30-07) / (Low 68 (6-13-06)
Speculation Index: Falling -.583 vs Last week: -.428 (High .749 (7-19-07) / (Low -1.601 10-22-08)
One Year High Yield National CD Rate: Unch 2.24% vs Last week: 2.24% (5.27% / Low 2.71% 4-9-09) (2.24% at newdominionDIRECT.com Charlotte, NC)
CD Rate information provided by BankRate CD Alert
*************************************************************************************
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125 Exchange Traded Funds
Trends & Sector Analysis
Symbol: Trend +/- vs Last Week (Historic: High / Low) Rating Demand Factor
Diamonds-Dow 30
DIA: -.53 vs Last week: -.36 (High .95 / Low -1.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 61+
S&P 500 Large-Cap
SPY: -.46 vs Last week: -.26 (High .78 / Low -1.88) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 76+
S&P 400 Mid-Cap
MDY: -.54 vs Last week: -.25 (High 1.15 / Low -2.35) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 84-
Russell 2000 Small-Cap
IWM: -.35 vs Last week: -.21 (High .72 / Low -1.14) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77-
Nasdaq 100 Large Growth
QQQQ: -.21 vs Last week: -.07 (High .54 / Low -.85) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 83-
1. Biotech
BBH: -.09 vs Last week: -.22 (High 1.58 / Low -4.28)Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 0-
2. Broadband
BDH: -.33 vs Last week: +.01 (High .57 / Low -.63) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 6/
3. Central Fund of Canada (Physical Precious Metals)
CEF: -.22 vs Last week: +.16 (High .41 / Low -.38) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77-
4. Chicago Mercantile Exchange
CME: -3.20 vs Last week: -.12 (High 4.84 / Low -7.92)Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 65-
5. PowerShares DB Agriculture
DBA: -.15 vs Last week: +.07 (High .65 / Low -.95) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 89-
6. Deutsche Bank Commodity
DBC: -.13 vs Last week: +.11 (High .68 / Low -.99) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 97-
7. Ultra Dow 30 Power Shares
DDM: -.45 vs Last week: -.31 (High 1.00 / Low -1.54) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 66+
8. Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares
DIG: -.54 vs Last week: -.33 (High .81 / Low -2.10) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 73+
9. UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares
DUG: +.40 vs Last week: +.29 (High 1.64/ Low -1.45) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 42-
10. Dow Jones Select Dividend
DVY: -.22 vs Last week: -.17 (High .69 / Low -.79) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 66+
11. Ultra Short Dow 30 Power Shares
DXD: +.46 vs Last week: +.31 (High 1.68 / Low -1.64)Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 22-
12. BRIC (Brazil Russia India China)
EEB: -.24 vs Last week: -.02 (High .86 / Low -.84) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 73+
13. Emerging Markets
EEM: -.21 vs Last week: -.05 (High 1.29 / Low -1.83) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 78/
14. EAFE Global Equities (Europe, Australasia and Far East)
EFA: -.23 vs Last week: -.17 (High .62 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 86+
15. Pacific ex-Japan
EPP: -.13 vs Last week: -.08 (High 1.36 / Low -1.25) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 96+
16. Australia
EWA: -.10 vs Last week: -.05 (High .81 / Low -.51) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77+
17. Canada
EWC: -.20 vs Last week: -.15 (High .52 / Low -.61) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 60+
18. Sweden
EWD: -.03 vs Last week: +.10 (High .79 / Low -.44) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 97+
19. Germany
EWG: -.38 vs Last week: -.33 (High .61 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 52-
20. Hong Kong
EWH: +.04 vs Last week: -.00 (High .48 / Low -.44) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
21. Italy
EWI: +.05 vs Last week: -.20 (High .51 / Low -.63) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 88+
22. Japan
EWJ: +.12 vs Last week: +.03 (High .63 / Low -.43) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100/
23. Belgium
EWK: +.08 vs Last week: -.00 (High .60 / Low -.83) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 97+
24. Switzerland
EWL: -.09 vs Last week: -.11 (High .64 / Low -.63) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 93+
25. Malaysia
EWM: +.11 vs Last week: +.11 (High .39 / Low -.22) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 98/
26. Netherlands
EWN: -.15 vs Last week: -.13 (High .64 / Low -.75) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 77+
27. Austria
EWO: -.49 vs Last week: -.46 (High .54 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 1+
28. Spain
EWP: -.09 vs Last week: +.08 (High .75 / Low -.89) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 83-
29. France
EWQ: -.16 vs Last week: -.08 (High .56 / Low -.62) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 89+
30. Singapore
EWS: -.04 vs Last week: -.05 (High .45 / Low -.50) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 37+
31. Taiwan
EWT: -.25 vs Last week: -.31 (High .40 / Low -.36) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 6+
32. United Kingdom
EWU: +.03 vs Last week: +.09 (High .69 / Low -.28) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 100+
33. Mexico
EWW: -.19 vs Last week: -.02 (High .72 / Low -1.22) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 75-
34. South Korea
EWY: -.15 vs Last week: -.13 (High .69 / Low -1.09) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 71+
35. Brazil
EWZ: -.37 vs Last week: -.17 (High 1.00 / Low -1.50) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 73+
36. South Africa
EZA: -.15 vs Last week: -.01 (High 1.72 / Low -1.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 90-
37. FTSE/Xinhua China 25
FXI: -.12 vs Last week: -.00 (High 2.91 / Low -2.27) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 91+
38. ProShares US FTSE/XI
FXP: +.03 vs Last week: -.03 (High 3.04 / Low -4.34) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 7-
39. SPDR Gold Trust
GLD: -.29 vs Last week: -.12 (High .80 / Low -.98) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 21-
40. Internet
HHH: -.24 vs Last week: -.24 (High .64 / Low -.75) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 89+
41. High Yield Corporate Bonds
HYG: -.22 vs Last week: +.08 (High .80 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 81-
42. Internet Architecture
IAH: -.03 vs Last week: +.15 (High .65 / Low -.86) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 44+
43. Broker-Dealers
IAI: -.11 vs Last week: -.04 (High .55 / Low -.69) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 67-
44. Insurance
IAK: -.09 vs Last week: +.01 (High .62 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 62-
45. Comex Gold
IAU: -.26 vs Last week: -.18 (High .84 / Low -1.02) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 51-
46. Biotechnology
IBB: +.01 vs Last week: -.00 (High .70 / Low -.84) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 47-
47. InterContinental Exchange
ICE: -1.76 vs Last week: -.17 (High 1.82 /Low -2.72) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 10-
48. Cohen & Steers Realty Majors
ICF: -.43 vs Last week: -.33 (High .98 / Low -1.60) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 78-
49. Utilities
IDU: -.02 vs Last week: +.15 (High .78 / Low -1.21) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 72+
50. S&P Europe 350
IEV: -.19 vs Last week: -.17 (High .84 / Low -2.42) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 85+
51. Natural Resources
IGE: -.38 vs Last week: -.22 (High 1.35 / Low -4.09) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 66-
52. Networking
IGN: -.11 vs Last week: +.03 (High .67 / Low -.71) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 88+
53. Software
IGV: -.11 vs Last week: +.02 (High .66 / Low -.79) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 95-
54. Semiconductor
IGW: -.16 vs Last week: +.12 (High .62 / Low -.75) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 94-
55. India Investment Fund
IIF: -.36 vs Last week: -.09 (High .88 / Low -1.11) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 71-
56. Mid-Cap 400 Blend
IJH: -.41 vs Last week: -.18 (High .78 / Low -1.18) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 80-
57. Mid-Cap 400 Growth
IJK: -.44 vs Last week: -.18 (High .76 / Low -1.44) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 82/
58. Small-Cap 600
IJR: -.27 vs Last week: -.14 (High .83 / Low -1.05) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 79-
59. S&P Latin America 40 Index
ILF: -.20 vs Last week: -.08 (High 2.68 / Low -9.72) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 73+
60. S&P 1500 Index
ISI: -.28 vs Last week: -.31 (High .81 / Low -1.41) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 46+
61. Aerospace & Defense
ITA: -.69 vs Last week: -.50 (High .64 / Low -1.02) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 56-
62. S&P TOPIX 150
ITF: -.13 vs Last week: -.05 (High .92 / Low -2.00) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 95/
63. Russell 2000 Growth
IWO: -.42 vs Last week: -.19 (High .83 / Low -1.05) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 59-
64. Global Financial
IXG: -.49 vs Last week: -.24 (High .79 / Low -1.06) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 1-
65. Consumer Cyclical
IYC: -.19 vs Last week: -.28 (High .78 / Low -1.02) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 87+
66. Energy
IYE: -.36 vs Last week: -.34 (High 1.29 / Low -1.86) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 61+
67. Financial Services
IYG: -.30 vs Last week: -.19 (High .85 / Low -1.18) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 42-
68. Healthcare
IYH: -.02 vs Last week: -.09 (High .54 / Low -.91) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 50-
69. Industrial
IYJ: -.41 vs Last week: -.30 (High .60 / Low -.97) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 65+
70. Consumer Non-Cyclical
IYK: -.30 vs Last week: -.21 (High .58 / Low -.95) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 78-
71. Basic Materials
IYM: -.40 vs Last week: -.17 (High .84 / Low -1.30) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 90+
72. Real Estate
IYR: -.23 vs Last week: -.19 (High .64 / Low -1.26) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 94/
73. Transportation
IYT: -.28 vs Last week: -.13 (High .87 / Low -1.32) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 82+
74. Technology
IYW: -.26 vs Last week: -.08 (High .54 / Low -.92) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77-
75. Total Market Index
IYY: -.36 vs Last week: -.23 (High .84 / Low -.98) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 80-
76. Telecommunications
IYZ: -.17 vs Last week: -.15 (High .43 / Low -.71 Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 64-
77. Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
LQD: +.46 vs Last week: +.17 (High .55 / Low -.69) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100/
78. Market Vectors Global Agribusiness
MOO: -.49 vs Last week: -.27 (High .64 / Low -1.29) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 9-
79. Ultra Short Mid-Cap 400 Power Shares
MZZ: +.34 vs Last week: +.11 (High 2.77 / Low -1.96) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 18-
80. NYSE Euronext Group
NYX: -.37 vs Last week: -.15 (High 1.77 / Low -1.30 Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 80-
81. NASDAQ Stock Market
NDAQ: -.32 vs Last week: -.07 (High 1.07/ Low -1.02) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 43-
82. S&P 100 Index
OEF: -.19 vs Last week: -.10 (High .64 / Low -1.29) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 79+
83. Oil Services
OIH: -1.03 vs Last week: -.78 (High 2.43 /Low -3.86) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 67+
84. PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy
PBW: -.38 vs Last week: +.11 (High .72 / Low -.72) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 55-
85. PowerShares Water Resources
PHO: -.14 vs Last week: -.04 (High .86 / Low -.73) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 21-
86. Pharmaceuticals
PPH: +.10 vs Last week: -.00 (High .80 / Low -1.04) Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 24/
87. PowerShares Dynamic Software
PSJ: +.01 vs Last week: +.06 (High .45 / Low -.50) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 42-
88. PowerShares Dynamic OTC
PWO: -.36 vs Last week: -.17 (High .57 / Low -.77) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 15-
89. Ultra Short QQQ Power Shares
QID: +.21 vs Last week: +.04 (High 1.86 / Low -1.36) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 11-
90. Ultra QQQ ProShares
QLD: -.31 vs Last week: -.10 (High 1.14 / Low -1.92) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 89/
91. Regional Banks
RKH: -.29 vs Last week: -.14 (High 1.37 / Low -1.50) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 60-
92. Eastern Europe
RNE: -.22 vs Last week: -.07 (High .55 / Low -.73) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 28-
93. Retail
RTH: -.44 vs Last week: -.43 (High .91 / Low -1.50) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 30-
94. DJ Wilshire REIT
RWR: -.24 vs Last week: -.21 (High .78 / Low -1.43) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 92+
95. UltraShort S&P 500 Power Shares
SDS: +.42 vs Last week: +.22 (High 2.23 / Low: -2.14)Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 19+
96. Ultra Short Russell 2000 Value ProShares
SJH: +.61 vs Last week: +.25 (High 3.32 / Low -3.18)Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 51-
97. Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bonds
SHY: +.26 vs Last week: +.04 (High .55 / Low -.69) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 26+
98. Ultra Short Russell 2000 Growth ProShares
SKK: +.20 vs Last week: -.06 (High 1.99 / Low -2.55)Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 36+
99. Silver Trust
SLV: -.35 vs Last week: -.27 (High 2.31 / Low -2.03) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 40+
100. Semiconductor
SMH: -.12 vs Last week: +.02 (High .48 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 86+
101. UltraShort Real Estate ProShares
SRS: +.20 vs Last week: +.14 (High 5.25 / Low -3.10)Rating: BUY+ Demand Factor: 8-
102. Ultra S&P500 ProShares
SSO: -.32 vs Last week: -.19 (High 2.23 / Low: -2.41)Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 71+
103. Software
SWH: -.14 vs Last week: -.24 (High .61 / Low -.76) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 77+
104. Barclays 20-Year+ Treasury Bonds
TLT: +.61 vs Last week: +.04 (High .76 / Low -.61) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 84+
105. Telecommunications
TTH: -.11 vs Last week: -.07 (High .54 / Low -.40) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 75-
106. PowerShares US Dollar Index Bearish
UDN: -.01 vs Last week: -.02 (High .61 / Low -.91) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 95
107. U.S. Natural Gas
UNG: -.20 vs Last week: +.02 (High .61 / Low -.91) Rating: SELL- Demand Factor: 41-
108. U.S. Oil
USO: -.43 vs Last week: -.03 (High 2.19 / Low -1.62) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 87-
109. Utilities
UTH: +.06 vs Last week: +.23 (High .95 / Low -1.72) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 100+
110. PowerShares US Dollar Index Bullish
UUP: +.18 vs Last week: +.17 (High .61 / Low -.91) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 88-
111. Wireless
WMH: -.52 vs Last week: -.34 (High .87 / Low -.82) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 3-
112. Homebuilders Select Sector
XHB: -.13 vs Last week: -.11 (High .69 / Low -.56) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 56+
113. Materials Select Sector
XLB: -.39 vs Last week: -.24 (High .45 / Low -.67) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 38-
114. Energy Select Sector
XLE: -.47 vs Last week: -.36 (High .80 / Low -1.31) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 66+
115. Financial Select Sector
XLF: -.10 vs Last week: -.02 (High .46 / Low -.59) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 70/
116. Industrial Select Sector
XLI: -.23 vs Last week: -.23 (High .46 / Low -.52) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 39+
117. Technology Select Sector
XLK: -.08 vs Last week: -.00 (High .51 / Low -.37) Rating: BUY Demand Factor: 64+
118. Consumer Staples Select Sector
XLP: -.14 vs Last week: -.21 (High .59 / Low -.52) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 27-
119. Healthcare Select Sector
XLV: -.13 vs Last week: -.19 (High .57 / Low -.44) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 0-
120. Consumer Discretionary Select Sector
XLY: -.33 vs Last week: -.33 (High .44 / Low -.58) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 10+
121. Mining & Metals Select Sector
XME: -.57 vs Last week: -.12 (High .98 / Low -1.45) Rating: SELL Demand Factor: 53-
125 Exchange Traded Funds(ETF) tracked: (Historic: High= 90% 5-15-09 / Low= 5% 10-31-08)
This week's ETFs results: FALLING, Buy 19 / Sell 106 (15%) vs. Last week: Falling, Buy 27 / Sell 98 (22%) vs. Prior week: Fallng, Buy 70 / Sell 55 (56%)
Dow Past Ten Weekly Net Close: -134.22(7-10) -157.65(7-2) -101.34(6-26) -259.53(6-19) +36.13(6-12) +262.80(6-5) +223.01(5-29) +8.68(5-22) -306.01(5-15) +362.24(5-8)
Options & Futures Expiration: Friday 7-17-09 (4-week cycle)
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