Stock Market Forecast Monday July 13 2009
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Friday 7-10-09 DJIA Closed: 8,146.52 -36.65 vs. prior day: 8,183.17 +4.76
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,424.28 -28.21 vs. prior day: 8,452.49 -27.61
DJIA Closed: -3.3% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -3.19% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday July 13 Stock Market Forecast
Mondays: Rising 27.4% / 26.0% / 24.4% / 25% / 26%
(Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 24.4% (6-22-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 7-10-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 7-6-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 5 vs. Down 26 (+1 vs -2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling (8-day 82.83) vs. (21-day 84.31) -1.48 vs. Prior -1.30 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 16% vs Prior 13% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 74% vs. Prior 77% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 0.35 vs. Prior 0.50 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 26 vs. Prior 18 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 13 vs. Prior 11 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 33 vs. Prior 34 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling -22 vs. Prior -3 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,452.49 / Intermediate Term 8,585.79 / Breakout 8,719.10
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,424.28 / Intermediate Term 8,276.84 / Breakdown 8,129.40
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stocks futures mixed ahead of busy earnings week - -
2.European stocks down as Nikkei records 8th loss -
3. European stocks flat ahead of key US earnings -
4. CIT Group still in talks with regulators - -
5. Philips reports 94 percent fall in 2Q profit - -
6. Japan's top 2 beverage makers considering merger - -
7. Oil slides toward $59, extending 2-week sell-off -
8. EU antitrust regulators charge LCD panel makers -
9. GOP unifies against any more stimulus spending -
10.Geithner to focus on investment, economic recovery -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current -136.78 vs. Previous day -147.01
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,141.91 vs. Previous day 2,278.70
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Rising Current -.12 vs. Previous day -.13 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 13% vs. Previous day 16% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 55.77% vs. Previous day 54.32% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 42.42% vs. Previous day 42.03% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Rising Current -.24% vs. Previous day -.25% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling at Baseline, 51% vs. Previous day 53% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet neutral.
(Definition: Baseline is 48 to 52, Neutral Zone)
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 74.8% vs Previous day 74.5% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -53% vs. Yesterday -52% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -46% vs. Yesterday -45% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Rising Trend Today -54% vs. Yesterday -57% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Rising Trend Today -35% vs. Yesterday -37% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Unch Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -21% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Unch Trend Today -12% vs. Yesterday -12% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today -28% vs. Yesterday -30% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -47% vs. Yesterday -46% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Rising Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Rising Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday -19% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Rising Trend Today -23% vs. Yesterday -29% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Rising Trend Today -13% vs. Yesterday -15% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 40 vs. Previous day 24 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Falling 20 vs. Previous day 27 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -124 vs. Previous day -116 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Monday Morning Market Observation:
Well the Tsunami did not occur on Friday after all was said and done. Actually, there was not enough umph in the stock market to do anything with two very low days of volume and very ranges in the various indices that are meaningful to track. Therefore, we look ahead for more clues as to what to do, up or down, sideways or more illusions. The Charts are no help due to the lack of movement, so the dearth of activity presents frustration and summer sweat awaiting the next market mover.
Even MktMetrics is a mixed bag of reasons to buy or sell. Today the DIA is showing a "Probability of Being Up" of 61%. However, the pre-market open are showing the futures as negative. And, since "Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday," I am hoping that the Shorts and Puts I loaded up on for the past two days will yield a bountiful day of green. What could be better for an environmentalist like me?
This is the week of earnings and economic news, futures and options expiration. I suspect both the volume and volatility will be explosive and be good for all of us.
Good luck and Good trading today.
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Friday 7-10-09 DJIA Closed: 8,146.52 -36.65 vs. prior day: 8,183.17 +4.76
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,424.28 -28.21 vs. prior day: 8,452.49 -27.61
DJIA Closed: -3.3% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -3.19% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday July 13 Stock Market Forecast
Mondays: Rising 27.4% / 26.0% / 24.4% / 25% / 26%
(Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 24.4% (6-22-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 7-10-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 7-6-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 5 vs. Down 26 (+1 vs -2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling (8-day 82.83) vs. (21-day 84.31) -1.48 vs. Prior -1.30 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 16% vs Prior 13% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 74% vs. Prior 77% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 0.35 vs. Prior 0.50 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 26 vs. Prior 18 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 13 vs. Prior 11 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 33 vs. Prior 34 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling -22 vs. Prior -3 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,452.49 / Intermediate Term 8,585.79 / Breakout 8,719.10
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,424.28 / Intermediate Term 8,276.84 / Breakdown 8,129.40
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stocks futures mixed ahead of busy earnings week - -
2.European stocks down as Nikkei records 8th loss -
3. European stocks flat ahead of key US earnings -
4. CIT Group still in talks with regulators - -
5. Philips reports 94 percent fall in 2Q profit - -
6. Japan's top 2 beverage makers considering merger - -
7. Oil slides toward $59, extending 2-week sell-off -
8. EU antitrust regulators charge LCD panel makers -
9. GOP unifies against any more stimulus spending -
10.Geithner to focus on investment, economic recovery -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Rising Current -136.78 vs. Previous day -147.01
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,141.91 vs. Previous day 2,278.70
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Rising Current -.12 vs. Previous day -.13 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 13% vs. Previous day 16% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 55.77% vs. Previous day 54.32% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 42.42% vs. Previous day 42.03% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Rising Current -.24% vs. Previous day -.25% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed below its Mean, negative yet increasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling at Baseline, 51% vs. Previous day 53% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet neutral.
(Definition: Baseline is 48 to 52, Neutral Zone)
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 74.8% vs Previous day 74.5% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -53% vs. Yesterday -52% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -46% vs. Yesterday -45% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Rising Trend Today -54% vs. Yesterday -57% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Rising Trend Today -35% vs. Yesterday -37% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Unch Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -21% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Unch Trend Today -12% vs. Yesterday -12% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today -28% vs. Yesterday -30% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -47% vs. Yesterday -46% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Rising Trend Today -10% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Rising Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday -19% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Rising Trend Today -23% vs. Yesterday -29% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Rising Trend Today -13% vs. Yesterday -15% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 40 vs. Previous day 24 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Falling 20 vs. Previous day 27 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -124 vs. Previous day -116 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Monday Morning Market Observation:
Well the Tsunami did not occur on Friday after all was said and done. Actually, there was not enough umph in the stock market to do anything with two very low days of volume and very ranges in the various indices that are meaningful to track. Therefore, we look ahead for more clues as to what to do, up or down, sideways or more illusions. The Charts are no help due to the lack of movement, so the dearth of activity presents frustration and summer sweat awaiting the next market mover.
Even MktMetrics is a mixed bag of reasons to buy or sell. Today the DIA is showing a "Probability of Being Up" of 61%. However, the pre-market open are showing the futures as negative. And, since "Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday," I am hoping that the Shorts and Puts I loaded up on for the past two days will yield a bountiful day of green. What could be better for an environmentalist like me?
This is the week of earnings and economic news, futures and options expiration. I suspect both the volume and volatility will be explosive and be good for all of us.
Good luck and Good trading today.
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:20 AM
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