Stock Market Forecast Monday July 6 2009
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
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Thursday 7-2-09 DJIA Closed: 8,280.74 -223.32 vs. prior day: 8,504.06 +57.06
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,556.82 -18.78 vs. prior day: 8,575.60 -11.28
DJIA Closed: -3.23% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -.83% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday July 6 Stock Market Forecast
Mondays: Rising 26.0% / 24.4% / 25% / 26% / 25%
(Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 24.4% (6-22-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-29-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Unch 12 vs. Down 19 (+0 vs +0 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling (8-day 84.14) vs. (21-day 85.67) -1.53 vs. Prior -1.68 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Unch#3 39% vs Prior 39% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 81% vs. Prior 94% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 0.85 vs. Prior 0.29 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Falling 47 vs. Prior 73 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 26 vs. Prior 38 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 30 vs. Prior 38 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 324 vs. Prior 617 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,575.60 / Intermediate Term 8,715.95 / Breakout 8,856.30
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,556.82 / Intermediate Term 8,407.06 / Breakdown 8,257.30
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Investors' focus shifts to 2Q earnings reports -
2. Bankruptcy judge OKs GM sale plan -
3. Chrysler names remaining directors to new board -
4. As retailers cut back cities confront 'ghostboxes' -
5. Chrysler names remaining directors to new board -
6. Geeks double as scourges and sages at media summit -
7. Bankruptcies low in states that don't seize wages -
8. Biden predicts more US jobs because of stimulus -
9. China won't press for new global currency at G8 -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -59.32 vs. Previous day 50.97
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,890.44 vs. Previous day 2,949.76
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.11 vs. Previous day -.08 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Unch Current 29% vs. Previous day 29% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, negative yet flat.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 54.71% vs. Previous day 60.35% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 50.65% vs. Previous day 57.77% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.18% vs. Previous day -.10% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 63% vs. Previous day 62% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 77.8% vs Previous day 84.1% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -36% vs. Yesterday -23% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -26% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today -25% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -7% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today -7% vs. Yesterday 2% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 2% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today -13% vs. Yesterday -7% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -36% vs. Yesterday -33% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -2% vs. Yesterday 1% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday 1% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -19% vs. Yesterday -3% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Unch Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Falling 35 vs. Previous day 89 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 29 vs. Previous day 25 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -96 vs. Previous day 37 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Monday Morning Market Observation:
A lot of fireworks went off this fourth of July. Perhaps the celebration will put investors in a better mood as the summer heats up for the stock market. Speaking of which, the market needs such enthusiasm with many traders and portfolio managers adrift at the beaches. The large amount of money on the sidelines and even less in the stock market could create greater volatility as futures and options expire this cycle on July 17th. Our stock volatility reading is indicating that will happen.
The Advance/Decline Line remains venerable, yet has not broken down. The last look at the DJIA Trend and DJIA Outlook has not broken down either. Last Monday, the DJIA surprised with a 91 point gain on the day. Can last Monday be indicative of what can happen today? Let's take a look for anything positive we can hang our hat on.
There is no significant news until Wednesday, which is the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Today, MktMetrics has the DIA Probability of Being "Up" at 100%. The last trading session, Thursday, the DJI made a new low which the NYSE A/D Line did not confirm, which is positive. Also, the DJI made a minor new low in recent trading action which was not confirmed by the NYSE Cumulative Up/Down Volume. That tells us the trend may have some steam left. Lastly, the DJIA is at the bottom of its trading range. So we cannot rule out some sort of snap back rally to even out the decline.
Traders should always let the Monday morning play out until the West Coast money managers have a chance to place their money bets on how the mood of the market is to play out with such little news to react to today and tomorrow. Play it safe as only fools rush in, a.k.a. gambling vs. speculation with calculated risk management.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Thursday 7-2-09 DJIA Closed: 8,280.74 -223.32 vs. prior day: 8,504.06 +57.06
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,556.82 -18.78 vs. prior day: 8,575.60 -11.28
DJIA Closed: -3.23% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -.83% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Monday July 6 Stock Market Forecast
Mondays: Rising 26.0% / 24.4% / 25% / 26% / 25%
(Lower Close from Open is greatest for Monday)
Historic High: 63.8% (8-27-07) / Low: 24.4% (6-22-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-29-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Unch 12 vs. Down 19 (+0 vs +0 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling (8-day 84.14) vs. (21-day 85.67) -1.53 vs. Prior -1.68 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Unch#3 39% vs Prior 39% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 81% vs. Prior 94% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 0.85 vs. Prior 0.29 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Falling 47 vs. Prior 73 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 26 vs. Prior 38 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 30 vs. Prior 38 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 324 vs. Prior 617 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,575.60 / Intermediate Term 8,715.95 / Breakout 8,856.30
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,556.82 / Intermediate Term 8,407.06 / Breakdown 8,257.30
Monday's Trading Highlights:
1. Investors' focus shifts to 2Q earnings reports -
2. Bankruptcy judge OKs GM sale plan -
3. Chrysler names remaining directors to new board -
4. As retailers cut back cities confront 'ghostboxes' -
5. Chrysler names remaining directors to new board -
6. Geeks double as scourges and sages at media summit -
7. Bankruptcies low in states that don't seize wages -
8. Biden predicts more US jobs because of stimulus -
9. China won't press for new global currency at G8 -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -59.32 vs. Previous day 50.97
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,890.44 vs. Previous day 2,949.76
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.11 vs. Previous day -.08 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Unch Current 29% vs. Previous day 29% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, negative yet flat.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 54.71% vs. Previous day 60.35% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 50.65% vs. Previous day 57.77% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.18% vs. Previous day -.10% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish Rising 63% vs. Previous day 62% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 77.8% vs Previous day 84.1% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -36% vs. Yesterday -23% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -26% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today -25% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -7% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today -7% vs. Yesterday 2% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today 2% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today -13% vs. Yesterday -7% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -36% vs. Yesterday -33% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Falling Trend Today -2% vs. Yesterday 1% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday 1% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -19% vs. Yesterday -3% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Unch Trend Today -11% vs. Yesterday -11% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Falling 35 vs. Previous day 89 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Rising 29 vs. Previous day 25 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -96 vs. Previous day 37 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Monday Morning Market Observation:
A lot of fireworks went off this fourth of July. Perhaps the celebration will put investors in a better mood as the summer heats up for the stock market. Speaking of which, the market needs such enthusiasm with many traders and portfolio managers adrift at the beaches. The large amount of money on the sidelines and even less in the stock market could create greater volatility as futures and options expire this cycle on July 17th. Our stock volatility reading is indicating that will happen.
The Advance/Decline Line remains venerable, yet has not broken down. The last look at the DJIA Trend and DJIA Outlook has not broken down either. Last Monday, the DJIA surprised with a 91 point gain on the day. Can last Monday be indicative of what can happen today? Let's take a look for anything positive we can hang our hat on.
There is no significant news until Wednesday, which is the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Today, MktMetrics has the DIA Probability of Being "Up" at 100%. The last trading session, Thursday, the DJI made a new low which the NYSE A/D Line did not confirm, which is positive. Also, the DJI made a minor new low in recent trading action which was not confirmed by the NYSE Cumulative Up/Down Volume. That tells us the trend may have some steam left. Lastly, the DJIA is at the bottom of its trading range. So we cannot rule out some sort of snap back rally to even out the decline.
Traders should always let the Monday morning play out until the West Coast money managers have a chance to place their money bets on how the mood of the market is to play out with such little news to react to today and tomorrow. Play it safe as only fools rush in, a.k.a. gambling vs. speculation with calculated risk management.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:33 AM
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