Stock Market Forecast Thursday July 9 2009
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Wednesday 7-8-09 DJIA Closed: 8,178.41 +14.81 vs. prior day: 8,163.60 -161.27
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,480.10 -27.91 vs. prior day: 8,508.01 -28.55
DJIA Closed: -3.56% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -4.05% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Thursday July 9 Stock Market Forecast
Thursdays: Falling 52.9% / 54.9% / 53.0% / 55.7% / 54.0%
(Lower Open, yet Higher Close from Open is greatest for Thursday)
Historic High: 66.7% (11-13-08) / Low 52.8% (3-12-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 7-6-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 7-6-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Falling 6 vs. Down 25 (-3 vs -2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling (8-day 83.62) vs. (21-day 84.89) -1.27 vs. Prior -1.19 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Falling 19% vs Prior 29% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Unch 74% vs. Prior 74% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 1.01 vs. Prior 1.39 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 19 vs. Prior 13 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 11 vs. Prior 9 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Rising 37 vs. Prior 36 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Rising 161 vs. Prior 139 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,508.01 / Intermediate Term 8,642.45 / Breakout 8,776.90
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,480.10 / Intermediate Term 8,331.70 / Breakdown 8,183.30
Thursday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures point to higher Wall Street open -
2. World markets up modestly as Alcoa beats forecasts -
3. Alcoa posts 2Q loss but sees some stability -
4. Oil rises above $61 despite uncertain demand -
5. China says Rio Tinto employees stole state secrets -
6. Official: 7 SKorean Web sites under renewed attack -
7. G8 opens to developing market economies -
8. German exports fall 25 percent in May; June CPI up -
9. China passes US auto market in first-half sales -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -203.01 vs. Previous day -171.60
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,425.70 vs. Previous day 2,628.72
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Unch Current -.12 vs. Previous day -.12 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative yet flat.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 16% vs. Previous day 19% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 55.81% vs. Previous day 53.77% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 44.32% vs. Previous day 44.03% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.25% vs. Previous day -.24% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling 57% vs. Previous day 60% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 75.0% vs Previous day 73.0% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Rising Trend Today -49% vs. Yesterday -53% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Rising Trend Today -41% vs. Yesterday -42% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Rising Trend Today -51% vs. Yesterday -53% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Rising Trend Today -34% vs. Yesterday -37% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Rising Trend Today -20% vs. Yesterday -21% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today -6% vs. Yesterday -1% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today -23% vs. Yesterday -26% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Rising Trend Today -44% vs. Yesterday -45% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Unch Trend Today -8% vs. Yesterday -8% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -15% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Unch Trend Today -23% vs. Yesterday -23% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -17% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 27 vs. Previous day 11 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Falling 31 vs. Previous day 34 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -153 vs. Previous day -148 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Thursday Morning Market Observation:
Yesterday's 10-Year Treasury auction went extremely well. So we must ask ourselves if this is a sign of more money leaving the table because of negative things to come? I believe so since low yields are the last resort, but preferably during tough times.
Today is Thursday and the Jobless Claims announcement comes early prior to the trading day. Yesterday, the DJIA should have been up more than +14.81 which tells me that the Claims number may not be good. There has been two days in a row of over 2,000 declines in the Advance/Decline Index, which goes to show the Breadth of the Market stinks. This is significant due to the fact that the 21-day moving average of the A/D Line has held up quite well lately, but has now pushed into a decline along with practically all of the other technical indicators we can find.
DJIA 8170 is a weak support for this complex. I am still under the impression that the Dow will need to head south for the summer and hit at least 7900 and most likely lower to 7100 before the dust settles. Thursday is showing a MktMetrics Probability of Being Up Today of only 35%. While this is nothing to hang your hat on for a positive outcome, the mood of the market will be set early on by the Jobless Claims number to be reported at 8:30am ET. Let's see what happens after the Report.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Wednesday 7-8-09 DJIA Closed: 8,178.41 +14.81 vs. prior day: 8,163.60 -161.27
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,480.10 -27.91 vs. prior day: 8,508.01 -28.55
DJIA Closed: -3.56% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -4.05% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Thursday July 9 Stock Market Forecast
Thursdays: Falling 52.9% / 54.9% / 53.0% / 55.7% / 54.0%
(Lower Open, yet Higher Close from Open is greatest for Thursday)
Historic High: 66.7% (11-13-08) / Low 52.8% (3-12-09)
DJIA Trend Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 7-6-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Down" from "Up" initiated 7-6-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Falling 6 vs. Down 25 (-3 vs -2 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Falling (8-day 83.62) vs. (21-day 84.89) -1.27 vs. Prior -1.19 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Falling 19% vs Prior 29% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Unch 74% vs. Prior 74% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Falling 1.01 vs. Prior 1.39 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 19 vs. Prior 13 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Rising 11 vs. Prior 9 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Rising 37 vs. Prior 36 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Rising 161 vs. Prior 139 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,508.01 / Intermediate Term 8,642.45 / Breakout 8,776.90
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8,480.10 / Intermediate Term 8,331.70 / Breakdown 8,183.30
Thursday's Trading Highlights:
1. Stock futures point to higher Wall Street open -
2. World markets up modestly as Alcoa beats forecasts -
3. Alcoa posts 2Q loss but sees some stability -
4. Oil rises above $61 despite uncertain demand -
5. China says Rio Tinto employees stole state secrets -
6. Official: 7 SKorean Web sites under renewed attack -
7. G8 opens to developing market economies -
8. German exports fall 25 percent in May; June CPI up -
9. China passes US auto market in first-half sales -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -203.01 vs. Previous day -171.60
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,425.70 vs. Previous day 2,628.72
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Unch Current -.12 vs. Previous day -.12 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative yet flat.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 16% vs. Previous day 19% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Rising Current 55.81% vs. Previous day 53.77% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Inventory: Rising Current 44.32% vs. Previous day 44.03% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, Positive and increasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.25% vs. Previous day -.24% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Falling 57% vs. Previous day 60% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish Rising 75.0% vs Previous day 73.0% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Rising Trend Today -49% vs. Yesterday -53% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Rising Trend Today -41% vs. Yesterday -42% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Rising Trend Today -51% vs. Yesterday -53% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Rising Trend Today -34% vs. Yesterday -37% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Rising Trend Today -20% vs. Yesterday -21% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today -6% vs. Yesterday -1% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Rising Trend Today -23% vs. Yesterday -26% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Rising Trend Today -44% vs. Yesterday -45% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Unch Trend Today -8% vs. Yesterday -8% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today -21% vs. Yesterday -15% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Unch Trend Today -23% vs. Yesterday -23% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -17% vs. Yesterday -14% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Rising 27 vs. Previous day 11 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Falling 31 vs. Previous day 34 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -153 vs. Previous day -148 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Thursday Morning Market Observation:
Yesterday's 10-Year Treasury auction went extremely well. So we must ask ourselves if this is a sign of more money leaving the table because of negative things to come? I believe so since low yields are the last resort, but preferably during tough times.
Today is Thursday and the Jobless Claims announcement comes early prior to the trading day. Yesterday, the DJIA should have been up more than +14.81 which tells me that the Claims number may not be good. There has been two days in a row of over 2,000 declines in the Advance/Decline Index, which goes to show the Breadth of the Market stinks. This is significant due to the fact that the 21-day moving average of the A/D Line has held up quite well lately, but has now pushed into a decline along with practically all of the other technical indicators we can find.
DJIA 8170 is a weak support for this complex. I am still under the impression that the Dow will need to head south for the summer and hit at least 7900 and most likely lower to 7100 before the dust settles. Thursday is showing a MktMetrics Probability of Being Up Today of only 35%. While this is nothing to hang your hat on for a positive outcome, the mood of the market will be set early on by the Jobless Claims number to be reported at 8:30am ET. Let's see what happens after the Report.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:22 AM
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