Stock Market Forecast Wednesday July 1 2009
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Tuesday 6-30-09 DJIA Closed: 8,447.00 -82.38 vs. prior day: 8,529.38 +90.99
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,586.88 -13.07 vs. prior day: 8,599.95 +1.38
DJIA Closed: -1.63% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -.82% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Wednesday July 1 Stock Market Forecast
Wednesdays: Falling 50.9% / 51.9% / 52.7% / 54.7% / 55.7%
Historic High: 79.1% (10-13-07) / Low: 47.1% (11-19-08)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-29-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 12 vs. Down 19 (+1 vs +1 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Unch (8-day 84.22 ) vs. (21-day 85.98 ) -1.76 vs. Prior -1.76 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 39% vs Prior 35% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 90% vs. Prior 94% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 0.95 vs. Prior 0.22 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 72 vs. Prior 69 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 35 vs. Prior 36 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 36 vs. Prior 38 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 477 vs. Prior 687 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,599.95 / Intermediate Term 8,743.67 / Breakout 8,887.40
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8586.88 / Intermediate Term 8,436.59 / Breakdown 8,286.30
Wednesday's Trading Highlights:
1. US stocks look to start 3Q on high note -
2. General Mills 4th-quarter profit almost doubles -
3. Dunkin' Donuts pulls drinks in salmonella concern -
4. General Motors' sale hearing to continue Wednesday -
5. General Motors says China sales up 38 percent -
6. Citigroup sells NikkoCiti Trust to Nomura Trust -
7. Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi UFJ to form finance JV -
8. Oil rises above $71 as US crude inventories drop -
9. Is Twitter the news outlet for the 21st century? -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -13.43 vs. Previous day 17.93
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,898.79 vs. Previous day 2,912.23
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.06 vs. Previous day -.02 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 26% vs. Previous day 39% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 61.45% vs. Previous day 63.06% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 55.77% vs. Previous day 58.03% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.09% vs. Previous day -.01% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Unch 61% vs. Previous day 61% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive yet flat.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 83.3% vs Previous day 85.3% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -20% vs. Yesterday -6% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -8% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today -14% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 9% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -31% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Unch Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday -1% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 7% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -13% vs. Yesterday -5% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Falling 89 vs. Previous day 119 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Unch#3 12 vs. Previous day 12 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -21 vs. Previous day -12 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Wednesday Morning Market Observation:
The stock market is set to begin a new month and the third quarter. As the economy remains soft at best, we look forward to earnings season. Third quarter earnings reports is notorious for showing weakness of all the four quarters in the year. I bring this up because the many indicators we examine daily look dismal. However, the stats have improved for the DJIA Trend and DJIA Outlook a tad and we are expecting a better day today as we begin a new month, as July 1st often begins on a solid note.
As people gear up for a long holiday weekend of activities, many traders are slipping out the back door to leave early. This will leave many wondering where the volume went and will most likely motivate others to hit-the-road as well. So with the 81% probability of the DIA being "Up" today, the stock market might see higher prices to encourage the few traders left on the street that there is much to be thankful for being an independent tax paying American.
Keep in mind for those who wish to participate in today's market action that the stock market remains adrift and any upside might prove to be disappointing as there is so much overhead supply and not enough participants to break through the barrier above. I am still under the impression that it would be much more constructive for the DJIA to come down to the 7900-8000 level, and preferably 7100 during the quarter.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
"Just Suppose For A Moment, You Know What The Exchange Insiders Know!" MktMetrics does.
Subscribe today for a "14-day Free Trial" to www.MktMetrics.com- See for yourself before you make a trade, at what price NYSE Specialists and NASDAQ Market Makers are only interested to buy and sell your stocks.
Tuesday 6-30-09 DJIA Closed: 8,447.00 -82.38 vs. prior day: 8,529.38 +90.99
DJIA 21-Day Moving Average: 8,586.88 -13.07 vs. prior day: 8,599.95 +1.38
DJIA Closed: -1.63% Below its Falling 21-day Moving Average vs. prior day -.82% (Historic High: 10.56% 3-26-09 vs. Low: -19.26%)
Before the New York Stock Exchange Open
Wednesday July 1 Stock Market Forecast
Wednesdays: Falling 50.9% / 51.9% / 52.7% / 54.7% / 55.7%
Historic High: 79.1% (10-13-07) / Low: 47.1% (11-19-08)
DJIA Trend Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-25-09
DJIA Outlook Change to "Up" from "Down" initiated 6-29-09
DIA Rating Change to "Sell" from "Buy" initiated 6-22-09
Dow Jones Industrial Average & DIA Statistics (Historic High / Low)
Dow 30 + DIA: Rising 12 vs. Down 19 (+1 vs +1 prior day)
DIA M/A Trend: Unch (8-day 84.22 ) vs. (21-day 85.98 ) -1.76 vs. Prior -1.76 (Historic High: +4.31 3-27-09 / Low: -11.12)
DJIA Trend: Rising 39% vs Prior 35% (Historic: High 100% 3-31-09 / Low 0%)
DJIA Momentum: Falling 90% vs. Prior 94% (Historic: High 97% / Low 0%)
DJIA Volatility: Rising 0.95 vs. Prior 0.22 (Historic: High 9.80 / Low -2.37)
DJIA 5-Day Stochastic: Rising 72 vs. Prior 69 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 20-Day Stochastic: Falling 35 vs. Prior 36 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 14-Day Relative Strength: Falling 36 vs. Prior 38 (High 100 / Low 0)
DJIA 50-Day Net Change: Falling 477 vs. Prior 687 (Historic: High 1957 5-18-09 / Low -3881)
DJIA Resistance Levels: Mean= 8,599.95 / Intermediate Term 8,743.67 / Breakout 8,887.40
DJIA Support Levels: Mean= 8586.88 / Intermediate Term 8,436.59 / Breakdown 8,286.30
Wednesday's Trading Highlights:
1. US stocks look to start 3Q on high note -
2. General Mills 4th-quarter profit almost doubles -
3. Dunkin' Donuts pulls drinks in salmonella concern -
4. General Motors' sale hearing to continue Wednesday -
5. General Motors says China sales up 38 percent -
6. Citigroup sells NikkoCiti Trust to Nomura Trust -
7. Morgan Stanley, Mitsubishi UFJ to form finance JV -
8. Oil rises above $71 as US crude inventories drop -
9. Is Twitter the news outlet for the 21st century? -
Institutional Investor Statistical Trends (Historic High / Low)
McClellan Oscillator: Falling Current -13.43 vs. Previous day 17.93
(High 232.41 / Low -316.18) Mean= -41.88 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Summation Index: Falling Current 2,898.79 vs. Previous day 2,912.23
(High 4,822.06 5-12-09 / Low -4,699) Mean= 123 Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Exchange Insiders' Inventory: Falling Current -.06 vs. Previous day -.02 (High .29 / Low -.31) Mean= -.01 Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Money Flow: Falling Current 26% vs. Previous day 39% (High 97% / Low 0%) Mean= 49% Closed below its Mean, Negative and decreasing.
Institutional Demand: Falling Current 61.45% vs. Previous day 63.06% (High 86.84% / Low 5.51% 11-20-08) Mean= 47.5% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Inventory: Falling Current 55.77% vs. Previous day 58.03% (High 81.06% / Low 6.42% 10-10-08) Mean= 43.74% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Institutional Accumulation/Distribution Trend: Falling Current -.09% vs. Previous day -.01% (High +.45% 4-3-09 / Low -.77% 10-10-08) Mean= -.21% Closed above its Mean, positive yet decreasing.
Outlook Statistics: Above 50% Bullish / Below 50% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DJIA Outlook: Bullish, Unch 61% vs. Previous day 61% (High 89% / Low 2% 3-11-09) Mean= 45.5% Closed above its Mean, Positive yet flat.
Stock Market Outlook: Bullish, Falling 83.3% vs Previous day 85.3% (High 100.0% / Low 1.8% 11-20-08) Mean= 50.9% (Dow 30, S&P 500, Russell 2000 & NASDAQ 100 combined)
12 Key ETFs: Above 0% Bullish/Below 0% Bearish (Historic High/Low)
DIA: Falling Trend Today -20% vs. Yesterday -6% (High 95% / Low -159%)
SPY: Falling Trend Today -8% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 85% / Low -192%)
MDY: Falling Trend Today -14% vs. Yesterday 10% (High 115% / Low -246%)
IWM: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday 6% (High 72% / Low -133%)
QQQQ: Falling Trend Today 5% vs. Yesterday 14% (High 54% / Low -85%)
SMH: Falling Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 48% / Low -60%)
IYT: Falling Trend Today -3% vs. Yesterday 9% (High 87% / Low -134%)
XLE: Falling Trend Today -31% vs. Yesterday -17% (High 82% / Low -131%)
XLF: Unch Trend Today -1% vs. Yesterday -1% (High 45% / Low -59%)
IAI: Falling Trend Today 7% vs. Yesterday 8% (High 55% / Low -67%)
IYR: Falling Trend Today -13% vs. Yesterday -5% (High 64% / Low -146%)
XHB: Falling Trend Today -4% vs. Yesterday -0% (High 69% / Low -56%)
MktMetrics.com tracks 125 Exchange Traded Funds for our Subscribers
Stock Market Plurality: (Daily short-term overbought/oversold indicators, look for extremes either way) Conclusion: Falling
100 “High” vs. 0 "Low" Demand Factor of 1,000 Stock Universe (Historic High/Low)
Demand Factor "100": Falling 89 vs. Previous day 119 (Historic High 367 / Low 0)
Demand Factor "0": Unch#3 12 vs. Previous day 12 (Historic High 458 / Low 0)
Commodity Channel Index: Falling -21 vs. Previous day -12 (Historic High +237 / Low -228)
Wednesday Morning Market Observation:
The stock market is set to begin a new month and the third quarter. As the economy remains soft at best, we look forward to earnings season. Third quarter earnings reports is notorious for showing weakness of all the four quarters in the year. I bring this up because the many indicators we examine daily look dismal. However, the stats have improved for the DJIA Trend and DJIA Outlook a tad and we are expecting a better day today as we begin a new month, as July 1st often begins on a solid note.
As people gear up for a long holiday weekend of activities, many traders are slipping out the back door to leave early. This will leave many wondering where the volume went and will most likely motivate others to hit-the-road as well. So with the 81% probability of the DIA being "Up" today, the stock market might see higher prices to encourage the few traders left on the street that there is much to be thankful for being an independent tax paying American.
Keep in mind for those who wish to participate in today's market action that the stock market remains adrift and any upside might prove to be disappointing as there is so much overhead supply and not enough participants to break through the barrier above. I am still under the impression that it would be much more constructive for the DJIA to come down to the 7900-8000 level, and preferably 7100 during the quarter.
Good luck and Good trading today!
Stock Market Predictor: www.MktMetrics.com
Douglas Gale, President jdg8119@gmail.com
Gale Financial Market Econometrics, Inc.
posted by Douglas Gale at 6:41 AM
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